River play on the flushed board

[Aaron W.]

10th hand of the session, so no reads have developed yet. What do you think about the turn check and what do you do on the river?

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

[Sirasoni]

For the river, I would fold, I feel that the pot is too small to have to risk a call here with a hand that is only hoping for a chop.

edit: I am not sure about the turn play either

[Eeegah]

Villain could have two random cards and you wouldn't have odds to call here, so sayeth Pokerstove.

Edit: wait maybe it does I dont know I cant read

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
990 games 0.020 secs 49,500 games/sec
Board: Qs 9s 7s As 2s Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6364 % 00.00% 33.64% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 66.3636 % 32.73% 33.64% { random }
---

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain could have two random cards and you wouldn't have odds to call here, so sayeth Pokerstove.

Edit: wait maybe it does I dont know I cant read

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
990 games 0.020 secs 49,500 games/sec
Board: Qs 9s 7s As 2s Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6364 % 00.00% 33.64% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 66.3636 % 32.73% 33.64% { random }
---


[/ QUOTE ]

No you don't because we split the times we "win" here.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain could have two random cards and you wouldn't have odds to call here, so sayeth Pokerstove.

Edit: wait maybe it does I dont know I cant read

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
990 games 0.020 secs 49,500 games/sec
Board: Qs 9s 7s As 2s Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6364 % 00.00% 33.64% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 66.3636 % 32.73% 33.64% { random }
---


[/ QUOTE ]

No you don't because we split the times we "win" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

lollerskates, that's what I thought at first too.

Just check over those numbers a little more carefully though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

They're accurate.

[aron]

I would bet that turn and fold to a raise.

-aron

[Fantam]

Can anyone remind me what Clarkmeister's theory says about 4 flush cards on the board, when you are heads up ?

I dont mind the turn check behind. Your opponent might have checked with a medium or low [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which he would be prepared to call a bet with.

On the river you are beating a bluff or any other pair. I think that I would call.

I suppose an alternative line might be to bet/fold the turn. Then check behind on the river or fold to a bet.

That would cost the same as the 1st line and perhaps give you some fold equity on the turn.

[ottsville]

Does this math work? 8 spades in left in the deck...8/45=17.7% with two chances for opp to have one = ~35%. You need about 2:1 to call based solely on opponent having the flush.

[Oink]

You are correct that there is about 35% chance that villain has at least one spade, 35,5% actually. But that does not make you 2:1 favorite against a random hand, since you are only gonna tie when villain is not holding a spade.

Note Eeegahs reply to that. Yoy are actually gonna be 2:1 dog.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river you are beating a bluff or any other pair. I think that I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look again. On the river, I'm chopping with a bluff or any other pair.