Seeing monsters?

The Bride · #1 03-23-2006, 12:00 PM

I almost never slowplay the flop - top set and no draws is about the only place I will. In retrospect, this may be a bit of a hangover from my full handed days - I'm not sure it serves much use in shorthanded, when you're betting pockets so aggressively.

Anyway, on with the rest of the hand. Villain was ubertight - 14/14/3 but only over 41 hands.

On the turn AK and AA are equally likely. I had no feel for how likely he was to 3bet 88 out of the BB. I think it was a lot less likely than AK or AA, but maybe enough to justify me capping the turn. Plus there's the chance he's aggressively playing a backed into flush draw.

When he bets into me on the river, I couldn't see anything but AK or AA and there didn't seem any value in raising. Was I about right in this, or am I just being paranoid?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB raises, MP folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River: (16.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.20 BB

Snafu'd · #2 03-23-2006, 12:09 PM

Pretty easy river raise IMO. If he 3-bets, then it may be a tough decision of cap or call.

BaxterTheActor · #3 03-23-2006, 01:01 PM

Raise the river, don't put too much value on your stats over that many hands.

The Bride · #4 03-23-2006, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river, don't put too much value on your stats over that many hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree - after 40 hands at 14/14 there's a pretty good chance he isn't a LAG.

BaxterTheActor · #5 03-23-2006, 02:55 PM

I'm not saying he's LAG, I'm just saying his range could include any smaller set + AK. Also consider the fact that his AF is pretty high. You have 2nd nuts, raise. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

The Bride · #6 03-23-2006, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty easy river raise IMO. If he 3-bets, then it may be a tough decision of cap or call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought not raising the river was debatable - however, capping the river seems even more so. Doesn't it seem very reliant on AK completely discounting the fact that I might have Aces or Kings?

jakeduke · #7 03-23-2006, 02:44 PM

I'm torn on what to do here. I'm not more than 50% convinced villain has AA, but if you get 3bet on the river I'm far more convinced (but not 100%). You win 1 more bet for sure if you raise and he just calls, but you probably lose more than 1 bet on average if you raise and he 3bets. If that thought process is correct, I think I'll just call.

dumb ox · #8 03-23-2006, 03:03 PM

He has to have AA less than a third of the time for a raise to be correct, assuming he'll just call the river raise with 88 and ak. Since the ak combos = aa combos, and I think 88 is rather unlikely for someone this tight, I think calling is best.

Sandberg · #9 03-23-2006, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He has to have AA less than a third of the time for a raise to be correct, assuming he'll just call the river raise with 88 and ak. Since the ak combos = aa combos, and I think 88 is rather unlikely for someone this tight, I think calling is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? A call here is 17:1. If we raise and call his three bet, we are 6:1. If he has AA even half the time, we are still making a profit. I even think that we will continue to make a profit by driving the odds down even further with a cap. Naturally, getting 5:1 for our river player. That means the villain needs to have AA something like 80% of the time for our cap not to be right.

reset12 · #10 03-23-2006, 12:27 PM

I'm ready to lose big on a flopped set of K with no draw...
If he has AA...too bad...raise that river...you have the second nuts