Did I overcount my outs?

grapabo · #1 03-17-2006, 01:31 AM

Table is loose, a few are aggressive.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.

(I normally raise a high pair, but with so many callers in front of me, I figured I wasn't going to drive out a K-x or A-x and I would have to chuck my hand anyway if the flop gave out overcards without a queen. I had also been pushing high pairs earlier, so this looked like an opportunity to mix it up and hope to win a lot of bets if the queen hits.)

Flop: (13 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls.

(Obviously, when I got bet-reraised I knew what I was up against. I was going to need to pair the board to win. At the time, I was doing a quick 1+6 count of the possible outs (the queen plus the other three suits of the flop cards) to justify calling this down. That was a mistake with respect to the King because that's a likely card that got folded by at least one of the other players. But at this point, to call the reraise, the pot is offering immediate odds of 9-1. I'd be lying if I did the math during the heat of the hand, but I was figuring that if I missed pairing the board on the turn, that would create more outs to pair the board on the river, which would make up for the effective odds for calling one bet on the turn.)

Turn: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets....

Did I talk myself into being a donkey this hand?

briddle · #2 03-17-2006, 01:46 AM

Grunch,

No, I can't say that you did. When you flop a set, you really do have a million outs to call with, even if a player flops a flush. BTW, I can't say that I've ever heard anyone say that you should discount outs due to the possibility of someone having folded one. Someone could have folded a five preflop, too; hands that fold are completely unknowable. I could see someone playing KQ this way. Possibly even AK, if he were aggressive postflop and kinda passive preflop. In fact, I isolation raised a fish earlier this evening that limped in with AK. Unfortunately, I was isolation raising with KTs and a K came on the flop. The fish went nuts, 3-betting the flop and betting the turn and river. Not pretty. And not terribly fishy, either, now that I think about it. Whatever.

Anyway, you were definitely getting odds to call the flop and turn, imho, and, getting 12.5-1, I would call the river, too. I doubt he put you on QQ, seing as how you just cold-called preflop...

milesdyson · #3 03-17-2006, 01:56 AM

wow 3bet preflop please

bozlax · #4 03-17-2006, 02:09 AM

Responding blind: ye...urk, urk, I looked at it, ugh, aaaaaiiiiiiieeeeeee! WTF?

[ QUOTE ]
I normally raise a high pair, but with so many callers in front of me, I figured I wasn't going to drive out a K-x or A-x and I would have to chuck my hand anyway if the flop gave out overcards without a queen. I had also been pushing high pairs earlier, so this looked like an opportunity to mix it up and hope to win a lot of bets if the queen hits.

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Gack! You push big pairs because you've got big equity. 3 cold-callers are 3 people that aren't going to fold no matter how many bets they have to call. RAISE!

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Obviously, when I got bet-reraised I knew what I was up against.

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No, you didn't. This could just as well be AK, in which case you're ahead, or another jackass "mixing it up" with KK (in which case you're drawing nearly dead, btw) or even AA.

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to need to pair the board to win. At the time, I was doing a quick 1+6 count of the possible outs (the queen plus the other three suits of the flop cards) to justify calling this down. That was a mistake with respect to the King because that's a likely card that got folded by at least one of the other players. But at this point, to call the reraise, the pot is offering immediate odds of 9-1. I'd be lying if I did the math during the heat of the hand, but I was figuring that if I missed pairing the board on the turn, that would create more outs to pair the board on the river, which would make up for the effective odds for calling one bet on the turn.

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This is all nonsense. There is no way on Earth you're going to be able to convince anybody that you should have folded the flop with a set of queens. Just stop trying. You don't need to count outs, here, either; just focus any brainpower you have available after tending to the needs of sustaining life on finding and clicking the "bet" and "raise" buttons.

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Did I talk myself into being a donkey this hand?

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If you mean, "did I assume that MP3 had a flush and play like a pu$$y?" then the answer is yes. You need to, at a minimum, find one more raise. Personally, I'd put it in on the turn, and call down if MP3 3-bets.

deleteduser · #5 03-17-2006, 02:20 AM

Re-Raise Preflop

I like the re-reraise on the flop probally should cap "I would at least"

He bets turn I would call down.

IMO not the most credible source

Gregatron · #6 03-18-2006, 01:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Re-Raise Preflop

I like the re-reraise on the flop probally should cap "I would at least"

He bets turn I would call down.

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This is my line too. Cap the flop, call down after that.

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IMO not the most credible source

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You seem to know what you are talking about here.

bigbrother36 · #7 03-17-2006, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is all nonsense. There is no way on Earth you're going to be able to convince anybody that you should have folded the flop with a set of queens. Just stop trying. You don't need to count outs, here, either; just focus any brainpower you have available after tending to the needs of sustaining life on finding and clicking the "bet" and "raise" buttons.

[/ QUOTE ]

POTD. BTW It is now a tight race for misplayed hand of the week is it not? Can someone please open-fold TT from the SB for the clear win?

grapabo · #8 03-17-2006, 03:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is all nonsense. There is no way on Earth you're going to be able to convince anybody that you should have folded the flop with a set of queens. Just stop trying. You don't need to count outs, here, either; just focus any brainpower you have available after tending to the needs of sustaining life on finding and clicking the "bet" and "raise" buttons.

[/ QUOTE ]

POTD. BTW It is now a tight race for misplayed hand of the week is it not? Can someone please open-fold TT from the SB for the clear win?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. Three people calling a raise in front of me and I shouldn't guess that at least one of them did so with a king.

As it turned out, the player did flop a flush, which I left out of the original post, but if you're going to dismiss my ability to read hands at the table, I feel compelled to bring it up.

OXIO · #9 03-17-2006, 03:03 AM

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As it turned out, the player did flop a flush, which I left out of the original post, but if you're going to dismiss my ability to read hands at the table, I feel compelled to bring it up.

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I think you are beeing results oriented. Of course sometimes he will have a flush there, but a lot of times someone will be scaring you off with a worse hand than yours and you will be losing value.

grapabo · #10 03-17-2006, 03:20 AM

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As it turned out, the player did flop a flush, which I left out of the original post, but if you're going to dismiss my ability to read hands at the table, I feel compelled to bring it up.

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I think you are beeing results oriented. Of course sometimes he will have a flush there, but a lot of times someone will be scaring you off with a worse hand than yours and you will be losing value.

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To an extent, yes, but I did call it down even at the river bet. (I didn't show that in the original post, because I thought it wasn't relevant.)

To be honest, this was in the middle of a bad night, and my guess of my op flopping the flush was in part due to the pessimism about some of the online poker hands. It gets exasperating flopping top pair with your AK and spewing until you realize your op flopped an AA333 full house.