set gets tooo much action???

[stu-unger]

reads- villain is decent. i havent seen him get out of line at all. he has been making real small bets with draws, and making real bets with real hands.

50nl 6max
effective stack- 100
dealt to hero 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on button

pre flop- MP limps, CO limps, hero calls .50, SB completes, BB checks.

flop (2.5)-Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
checked to MP who bets 2, CO folds, hero raises to 6, all fold to MP who min 3 bets to 10, Hero calls 4?

i was planning on pushing over his turn bet...

turn (22.5)-10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP checks, hero bets 15, MP calls.

river (52.5)-J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
MP bets 52, hero folds.

how did i do???

[DoomSlice]

Why didn't you push over his turn bet?

[deaders]

Why did you just call his flop raise? Get a lot more in there, pot turn, take his stack.

horrible.

do you see why?

[bhudson]

If you want to get the money in the middle, you can't close the flop action after a min raise. Nobody who isn't calling a flop push here will call a turn push unless they improve. Put in a big reraise on the flop.

[aces_dad]

Because villian didn't bet the turn.

[artfuldodger]

yeah push the flop

as played, you need to push the turn instead of underbetting the pot. i doubt he's made his str8 on the turn because it's pretty unlikely that he re-raised you with nothing but a gutshot on the flop (KJ or J8).

i understand that you were trying to extract more value here, but after you raised and then called his re-raise, the villain is putting you on a pretty strong hand. thus the price you gave him with the turn bet is pretty good because he can feel reasonably confident that you'll payoff if he hits his inside str8 draw.

so assuming you don't push the flop, push the turn here (or at least pot it) and don't give him the implied odds to chase. maybe you get called by 2 pair - Q9 or Q10 - which is possible since min-raising on the flop to define his hand is consistent with this. but more than likely you have him crushed on the turn and he'll fold.

you might think that leaves value on the table, but this is precisely why you need to push on the flop. like someone else said, if he can't call your flop push then he likely can't call your turn push either. but, if you think about it, if he can't call your flop push, it is even LESS likely that he can call your turn push. two reasons:

1) you smooth call the flop reraise and then bet the turn big. you might as well flip your cards over and tell him what you have.

2) the only LIKELY hand he could improve to at the turn capable of calling a big bet is 2 pair, and there are only 3 cards in the deck that can make this happen, so the chances of drawing more money from him are low. on the flop, with two more cards to come, you might get a bad call from an open-ended str8 draw, or even TPTK. if he has two pair already, he's just as likely to call a flop push as a turn push.

in my experience, you win big pots with sets in 3 ways:
1) Someone can't let go of a big overpair
2) You raise the flop on a draw board and someone with top pair top/good kicker re-raises you suspecting a semi-bluff
3) Someone plays with you holding two pair

Given the preflop action, #1 isn't likely.
#2 is possible here.
#3 is also possible here.

If you want to slow play your set, the best time to do it is in situation #1. Big pairs often dump a lot of money into the pot by the turn, and then if you raise them they are usually committed enough to call.

In situations #2 and #3, slow playing and smooth calling here is likely to slow people down more, especially if a scare card hits (you slow play a set, they have TPTK, and then a flush/str8 card falls killing your action). It's better to play your sets fast in these situations. The villain's hands are not likely to improve enough where if they can't call a large flop raise, they can call one later in the hand. And if they can, a lot of times it will be a hand that has caught up to beat you.

[anacrime]

Why push the flop? I think we lose a lot of value by pushing 100 into ~20. Make a ~50 raise for value and push any turn. You're not folding the turn to any card, right?

[c_strong]

Like everyone else, I would re-raise the flop - probably just make it $30 or so and hope he calls/pushes.

As played, I think you have to call the river. Unless he has specifically KQ it is hard to figure him for the straight - I think two pair is at least as likely with QJ or even something like Q9 or JT. No PFR so AK or KK is unlikely.