Turn Fold with TPGK

The Funky Llama · #1 03-12-2006, 08:27 PM

Villain is 24/19/1.4.

Preflop cap isn't really standard for me against 19 pfr 3bettor from sb, but coldcaller was 74/2 fish and I felt like capping, so big daddy capped.

I think after overrepresenting my hand preflop this is a good fold, but am wondering what you guys think.

The colors and stuff on the turn action are off a little because I had to type it in myself (converter issues), but its the actual action.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (4 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players) SB bets, hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

EDIT: The converter says this is 4 handed, but I remember it being 6 handed or at least 5 handed. 4 handed the preflop cap is totally standard imo.

Surf · #2 03-12-2006, 08:43 PM

I don't like the cap.

Good turn fold.

Surf

ArturiusX · #3 03-12-2006, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the cap.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with position?

The Funky Llama · #4 03-12-2006, 08:47 PM

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.4751 % 03.98% 12.50% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 83.5249 % 71.02% 12.50% { AA, JJ, AJs+, AJo+ }

11.5:2 effective odds = 14.8% . My implied odds are pretty solid.

Especially if there's any chance he could have like AT here or even JK this looks bad now. What do you think?

Or do you think AQ should be discounted a lot because it wouldn't checkraise this flop as frequently as AA/JJ/AJ would? Its really the presence of a split with AQ that is boosting me from 5% equity to 16%.

oreopimp · #5 03-12-2006, 09:09 PM

If you have a really really solid read maybe you can fold (even then this fold is so super rare for me it almost never hanppens.). but the pot is pretty decent sized, its heads up, your effective odds are not to shabby. I mean if you want to pstove a pretty tight range, this is what you get:

(this is a pretty general tight range and takes out KK, QQ, ATo, KJs, etc...so it definitly improves the situation if he can hold these hands anywhere from 30%-10% of the time it improves you to practically a coinflip on the flop and a 5-3 dog on the turn to the river)

Tight range FLOP:

Board: Ad Jh 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1562 % 17.85% 11.30% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 70.8438 % 59.54% 11.30% { AA, JJ, ATs+, AJo+ }

Tight Range TURN:

Board: Ad Jh 5c 8s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 22.3784 % 10.83% 11.55% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 77.6216 % 66.07% 11.55% { AA, JJ, ATs+, AJo+ }

So compared with the effective odds on both streets, not to bad.

On a side not I had a hand almost like this, against a tag I know, my hand started 5 handed though, but he did have ATo. But I had a read where I figured he was being loose-ish and maybe not being to solid. If you have a read this guy will only do this with hands that beat you, maybe you can find a fold. Depends on whats happeneing I suppose...if the pot was smaller maybe it would be easier to find a fold as well.

anyway, I usually dont fold this, especially given the pot size...this hand is usually tied to seeing a showdown.

Schizo · #6 03-13-2006, 01:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
11.5:2 effective odds = 14.8% . My implied odds are pretty solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

lmn55d, shouldn't this be 10.5:2 = 19%?

the pot is 8.5BB's at the start of the turn.

The Funky Llama · #7 03-13-2006, 01:38 AM

yea, nice catch

Schizo · #8 03-13-2006, 06:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yea, nice catch

[/ QUOTE ]

Well according to your pokerstove of a rather tight person we aren't getting effective odds. If he is the type to only raise AJ+ preflop then there are short on our effective odds.

1 combos of AA
3 combos of JJ
For a total of 4 combos we are drawing dead to

We are drawing live against AJ and AK which are 6+8=14 combos. Now hopefully someone can check my math.....

8.69% of the time a Q will fall on the river. Allowing us to raise. Strangly enough an A isn't good enough for raise here. If a queen falls and villian will reraise with trips then we will get reraised 22% of the time. Therefore our raises on the end are worth (-2 * .22 + .77*1 =0.3333) or 0.33BB's.

now 2/10.5+0.33 = 0.18 and your pokerstove has us at 16% which means this is a slight loser given this very tight range. So, I think against a preflop rock we can fold this.

flawless_victory · #9 03-13-2006, 06:31 AM

preflop cap is standard/obvious and the turn fold is incredibly horrible unless you know something youre not telling us.

Catt · #10 03-12-2006, 08:53 PM

I think it's pretty close, actually. I actually prefer to invest another SB on the flop (and open myself up to investing 2 there) by three-betting because I will fold with greater confidence to any further aggression post-the-flop. Pre-flop cap is OK, I think (not always, but fine against this line-up some of the time).