NL50: FD+Gut shot vs obvious big pairs. Spewy? Too aggressive?

[AlexB182]

MP1 was 74/37 (mostly minraises)/1.2 over only 25 hands, so very small sample size but chances are good he is fishy.
SB is 9/6/1.8 over 450 hands, so when he raises out of the SB here I know he has to have some kind of a hand.
PF is pretty weird, I'll admit that right now. My reasoning was: SB is pretty easy to play, if I flop big I have good chances to take his stack. MP1 made his usual minraise, so not too much to be afraid of. I really did not think he would repop PF, but when he did and SB just called, my odds were by far too good to fold here.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $70.30
BB: $92.75
Hero (UTG): $53.75
UTG+1: $34
UTG+2: $49.25
MP1: $86.90
MP2: $42
CO: $43.95
BTN: $69.10

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $1</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $3</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $2.50, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $5</font>, SB calls $2, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($15.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $8</font>, SB calls $8, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48.75 and is All-In</font>

I figured I did not have too much FE here, but maybe a bit for the case SB has only a weak overpair like JJ and is afraid of a set and maybe a higher overpair. MP1 can have a really big range in this spot. So, when both fold, I'm very happy. When both call I'm very happy, too, like my chances. Reasoning ok?
All comments appreciated!

[xxrod17xx]

How I am looking at this one is that you are shoving solely based on your hand. Did it cross your mind that the sb could be counterfeiting your club outs? I understand you have a ton of odds based on the two cards you are holding, but I dont know how aggro I get here because it is very likely you are drawing to a lower club flush draw so just shoving could be super -ev. I prob make a call here an re-evaluate on the turn. This is prob the only situation I can think of that I would play this a little slow.

[BlueBear]

You don't have enough fold equity to make a shove profitable. Especially with a fishy MP1 who is going to call any piece of the flop.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
Did it cross your mind that the sb could be counterfeiting your club outs? I understand you have a ton of odds based on the two cards you are holding, but I dont know how aggro I get here because it is very likely you are drawing to a lower club flush draw so just shoving could be super -ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

As mentionend I'm pretty positive here that he has a pair here, like 75%sure, perhaps more. So he can only have one of my outs in his hand. I'm putting some stove results in here:

6,293,709 games 5.266 secs 1,195,159 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.625% 46.46% 00.00% 2924192 0.00 { Tc9c }
Hand 1: 57.375% 62.54% 00.00% 3936069 0.00 { AcAd }


6,516,672 games 7.250 secs 898,851 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.307% 41.31% 00.00% 2691818 0.00 { Tc9c }
Hand 1: 51.919% 51.92% 00.00% 3383412 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 2: 06.774% 06.77% 00.00% 441442 0.00 { KcKd }

[xxrod17xx]

if thats ur read...then I dont mind the play as much, but I feel like if I was in the situation I wouldnt be so sure that he was only on a pair. A calling range on this board is really wide.

[WantToLearn]

Ok, AK-clubs and AQ-clubs is only 2 specific combinations for SB, but I wouldn´t completely rule out KQ-clubs if he knows the fishy villain as well.
But if he´s the kind of player his stats suggest he is, why isn´t he raising MP1 with his supposed big pair?

Plus, you can have MP1s stack later if you hit (SB will fold then if he doesn´t have the clubs, because you bet in a way that makes it impossible for him to continue with the lone flush-ace). Clubs don´t kill your action here as much as you suffer from missing fold equity.

By the way, what was the general play at the table? I just wonder is it profitable to limp T9s UTG.

[CaptVimes]

Not sure about MP1's range here to 4bet pre and then cbet. Is he somewhat fit or fold on the flop? I put him likely on overs too. Here's what i get outa pokerstove.

850,626 games 0.032 secs 26,582,062 games/sec

Board: 6c 2c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.952% 41.77% 00.18% 355344 1512.00 { Tc9c }
Hand 1: 29.024% 28.26% 00.76% 240387 6498.00 { 88+ }
Hand 2: 29.024% 28.26% 00.76% 240387 6498.00 { 88+ }

[toymach776]

[ QUOTE ]
PF is pretty weird, I'll admit that right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
I hope that you are referring to the open limp with T9s and then calling a 3bet from tight SB. Yea you have position on SB but I still dont like it a whole lot. You are getting good odds though if you know that SB will stack off if you hit flop big, but how often is that going to happen here? This 3bet isnt huge and I can see MP1 calling it after us which is the problem. As played, after MP1 4 bets, you have to call remaining 2 dollars though.
As played I like flop because it appears to me that villains are not strong. I think you have enough fold equity/pot equity to make this play.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PF is pretty weird, I'll admit that right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
I hope that you are referring to the open limp with T9s and then calling a 3bet from tight SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mainly to calling the 3bet though I knew I'd get good odds in case MP1 calls behind as he is supposed to do ;-)
I know many of you guys hate open limping, but I seriously think it's not too bad to do it at the right tables in the right spots against rather bad/passive opponents...

[ActionStan]

This makes my head hurt.