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#1
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equity must call?
i know villan makes straight on turn. my instinct says the numbers are really close. call or fold? what does stove say?
Full Tilt Poker Game #4142063302: Table Palomar (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 15:00:09 ET - 2007/11/11 Seat 1: craftylefty18 ($52.55) Seat 2: fatrabbit666 ($61.65) Seat 3: SulyT ($40.80) Seat 4: shnurrrrrrrp ($100.70) Seat 5: Hard2Find0ut ($85.10) Seat 6: Buy Me Dinner ($51.55) craftylefty18 posts the small blind of $0.25 fatrabbit666 posts the big blind of $0.50 The button is in seat #6 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to shnurrrrrrrp [Tc 8s Jd Js] SulyT folds shnurrrrrrrp raises to $1.75 Hard2Find0ut raises to $6 Buy Me Dinner folds craftylefty18 folds fatrabbit666 calls $5.50 shnurrrrrrrp has 15 seconds left to act shnurrrrrrrp calls $4.25 *** FLOP *** [Jh 2s Th] fatrabbit666 checks shnurrrrrrrp bets $18.25 Hard2Find0ut folds fatrabbit666 calls $18.25 *** TURN *** [Jh 2s Th] [9c] fatrabbit666 bets $37.40, and is all in |
#2
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Re: equity must call?
i fold, i dont think your getting the right price. i am to lazy to do the numbers.
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#3
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Re: equity must call?
[ QUOTE ]
i fold, i dont think your getting the right price. i am to lazy to do the numbers. [/ QUOTE ] i think with equity involved, its less loserable to call in the long run. not sure though. i swear, i pushed the call button right when i timed out. folded by default. |
#4
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Re: equity must call?
Villain never has a lower set or flush draw or any combo of the above. You are right to say that you 'know' this, you may as well be able to see his cards. In which case fold, you've got 9 outs with 42 unknown cards, giving you 3.66-1 drawing odds, while you're only getting god knows what to 1 given you're too [censored] lazy to use a converter, so who the hell knows. You play poker and you can't do basic maths?
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#5
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Re: equity must call?
wazz, what gives? u got it in for me or what? seriously, why dont u f' off.
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#6
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Re: equity must call?
i don't have it in for you. don't take everything i say so literally, i'm in an absolutely awful mood today (coolers + suckouts). i just hope you can see why i'm annoyed at this post: it's primarily a simple maths problem, i.e. work out whether you have odds to call to fill up, which more often than not you do, especially when you add in to his range that some of the time he won't have a straight and he will just be trying to get you to fold. He might even be valuebetting a lower set with a flush draw or some myriad combination of draws. I instacall this but w/e, do what you want, I'm not gonna f' off, use a [censored] converter like everyone else.
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#7
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Re: equity must call?
[ QUOTE ]
i know villan makes straight on turn. my instinct says the numbers are really close. call or fold? what does stove say? [/ QUOTE ] sqwisssssss -I don't know what "stove" is. $18.25*3 + $37.40 = $92.15 That's what's in the pot. It costs you $37.40 to call. Therefore you're getting 92.15/37.40 = 2.46/1 or 2.46 to 1 to call. Meanwhile, since you have one of your own outs for the board pairing, there are only 9 river cards that can make you quads or a full house (J,T,T,2,2,2,9,9,9). If Villain does have the straight, he either has KQYZ, Q8YZ, or 87YZ. In any of these cases he has two of your bricks and none of your outs. Thus if Villain does have the straight, there are 44-9-2=33 bricks (cards that don't make you a full house or quads). Therefore the odds against you making a full house or quads are 33 to 9 or 33/9 = 3.67/1. In other words, the odds against you making a full house or quads (I call them "hand odds") are 3.67 to 1 (against). Since the odds against you making your full house or quads are substantially greater than the pot odds you are getting, and since you have no implied pot odds here because Villain is all-in, we say you have "unfavorable odds" to draw for the board to pair. Another way of saying what amounts to the same thing is saying you have an unfavorable e.v. or a negative e.v. However, there's another important consideration: Villain goes all-in, thus taking away your implied pot odds in case you are drawing, and thus making a draw less favorable. This is a situation where it is not uncommon for Villain to be bluffing. And now you have to decide if Villain is bluffing or not. You don't have favorable odds to draw if there is no chance Villain is bluffing. But if Villain would bluff here more than about one fourth then you should call. Here's my algebraic formulation for the one fourth:[list] (-33/42*37.40+9/42*92.15)(1-B)+92.15B =0. Solve for B, the bluffing break even point. B=0.242, if I did the math right. So is Villain going to bluff here at least one time out of four? If so, it behooves you to call. If not, fold. You have to decide. Buzz |
#8
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Re: equity must call?
buzz, thank you for the response.
buzz, have you considered my equity? i believe i made a huge mistake here by not snap calling. i meant to call but my time ran out as soon as i pushed "click". i'm pretty sure you lose less money in the long run by calling. thats why i asked if someone would stove it. poker stove is an equity calculator i believe. buzz, you can throw this thread in the trash any time you feel like. see you at 5k bud. |
#9
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Re: equity must call?
Pro Poker Tools -- essentially the same as Poker Stove
On the turn J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 19.85% AKQ9 80.15% T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 21.16% KQxx 78.84% T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 19.43% K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]QT4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 80.57% T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 30.43% 87xx 69.57% |
#10
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Re: equity must call?
[ QUOTE ]
buzz, have you considered my equity? [/ QUOTE ]Hi sqwisssssss - Assuming I did the math correctly, I believe I did better than that. I assumed Villain either has a straight or is bluffing. But with JT9 on the flop, which straight??? Could be king high, queen high, or jack high. I circumvented that dilemma by assuming that if Villain has a straight, then you need the board to pair on the river in order to win. However, that's not exactly true, because Villain could only have a jack high straight, and in that case a seven on the river will also give you a jack high straight, which might tie if Villain only has a jack high straight. (The 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] adds a possible flush complication). But in any event, the probability of a seven on the river along with Villain only having a jack high straight is relatively remote and is trivial compared to the possibility of Villain bluffing. I think often when some individuals get down to their last chips, they tend to take a flier at the pot. Even otherwise solid players can push all-in when they are down. (I guess that qualifies as "steaming"). At any rate, I figured the possibility the board would pair (9/42 if Villain has any version of the straight), and the possibility the board would not pair (33/42). And I figured how much money Hero would win if the board paired and how much he’d lose if it didn’t. And then if the probability Villain is bluffing is B, the probability Villain is not bluffing is 1-B. And then I wrote an equation to solve for the percentage of the time Villain would have to be bluffing (or betting stupidly) in order for it to be proper for Hero to call. I rather doubt that anyone else wrote that equation, although there are those who post here who are capable of writing it. In writing the equation, I considered the amount in the pot and by using 9/42 and 33/42, considered Hero’s equity if Villain actually has a straight. [ QUOTE ] i believe i made a huge mistake here by not snap calling. i meant to call but my time ran out as soon as i pushed "click". [/ QUOTE ]Not necessarily. It’s a tough decision, if you take the time and have the mental capability to think about it. And if Villain would never bluff here, you made the correct decision. Buzz |
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