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#1
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Omaha - easy probability question
Omaha, 3 players see a flop, Hero + 2 vilians.
The flop is suited, lets say spades. Hero doesn`t have any spades. What`s the probability that any of the vilians have a flush and what is the easiest/fastest way to calculate this? I know how to get there but I think I`m over-calculating it. There has to be a simpler way. Anyone? |
#2
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Re: Omaha - easy probability question
Flip Flop – Roughly three times out of eight, at least one of your two opponents will have the flush.
If I don’t have to use words to explain what I did, here is the rigorous calculation: 8 spades 45 C(10,8)*C(35,0) 7 spades 4200 C(10,7)*C(35,1) 6 spades 124950 C(10,6)*C(35,2) 5 spades 1649340 C(10,5)*C(35,3) 4 spades 10995600 C(10,4)*C(35,4) 3 spades 38955840 C(10,3)*C(35,5) 2 spades 73042200 C(10,2)*C(35,6) 1 spade 67245200 C(10,1)*C(35,7) 0 spades 23535820 C(10,0)*C(35,8) total is 215553195 total should be C(45,8)=215553195 checks 8 spades 45 7 spades 4200 6 spades 124959 5 spades 1649340 4 spades 10995600 3 spades 38955840 2 spades 31303800 (from 73042200*30/70) 1 spade 0 0 spades 0 total is 83033784 83033784/215553195 = 0.38521249 = probability I don’t want to explain it. I can think of a couple of ways to approximate it well enough for our purposes. Buzz |
#3
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Re: Omaha - easy probability question
It's easier to work with the numbers for 0, 1 or 2 spades;
then, just subtract the probability from one. |
#4
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Re: Omaha - easy probability question
Thanks
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