Razz trny advice, please

[Praxising]

There were 136 people in this trny and the first hour I was so card dead I only played 4 hands out of 46 hands, folded on one 4th, won the other three only because the other guy was a complete idiot.

So, I manage to stay in, get into the money, 14 players are left when I lose half my stack in one of those rotten suck out hands, and am the short stack - get back up a little so I'm 13th in a 14 person trny and this happens.

I am only posting this to have you all confirm I am the dumbest, nittiest, most idiotic tournament player you've ever seen for folding 3rd. I shoulda raised. Right? This is one of those "What the heck was I thinking?!" hands.


Tournament - Razz - Level XV (2,000/4,000), Ante 400, Bring-In 600 (converter)

Seat 1: 37,605
Seat 2: 26,109
Seat 3: 29,204
Seat 4: 22,490
Seat 6: 37,599
Hero: 13,765
Seat 8: 33,913

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

Total pot: (1.70 SB)

[RustyBrooks]

Uh, what? There are 3 low cards yet to act, why would youu want to bet here? If there was 1 I raise every time, 2, I'd raise quite often a cash game, 3, almost never in either situation.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, what? There are 3 low cards yet to act, why would youu want to bet here? If there was 1 I raise every time, 2, I'd raise quite often a cash game, 3, almost never in either situation.

[/ QUOTE ] Go up and look at the stack sizes vs the limits and antes. That's why.

[RustyBrooks]

You have like 30 antes. As soon as you get involved in a hand you have 3bb. I'd wait for better position if not a better hand.

[kerze]

[ QUOTE ]
You have like 30 antes. As soon as you get involved in a hand you have 3bb. I'd wait for better position if not a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the number of antes the relevant number or is it an "M" type number based on the number of antes plus expected bring ins each time around the table. With antes at 400 and bring in at 600, hero expects to have to pay 3400 to play each cycle (assuming that he brings in 1 in 7 times). With his chip stack of 13,675 that gives him an "R" of about 4. I think this measure is a little better than number of antes because the bring in to ante ratio can vary depending on the structure.

Can someone who is a lot better player than me explain what "R" you would need before you started completing with essentially what hero had (low card showing with another wheel card in the hole)

[kerze]

Prax,

I've played the Full Tilt $5+.50 tourney, 57 times. I have 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 6th, 1 8th, 2 13th and 2 14th for 10 cashs for a total of $389 in prizes vs. $313.50 in buy-in/rake. The fields range from 45 in the lowest to 265 for the highest (which was because a pro was playing). Typically there are about 70 runners (my wins had 73 and 74).

I've also played the $10+$1 5 times with one win and no other cashes. The win as for $120 (there were only 24 runners) for a net profit of $65.

I've played the $24+$2 13 times and have a 13th and 14th for $63 in cashes vs $338 in buy-ins and a $275 loss which more than eats up my profits in the others. (Also I have played a $20+$2 razz once and didn't cash). This is a guaranteed tournament and I largely played because there was a small overlay or it appeared there would be an overlay. I won't play again because I feel I am way overclassed in these and not properly rolled (many of the entries came after my wins in the $5 and $10 tourneys)

[mshalen]

I want to expand on Adanthar's comments.

In a cash game the fold is standard since you make your money by winning pots and if you bust out you reload. This situation is tournament razz which had very different goals then cash game razz. In tournament play the majority of the money goes to the last 3 players with the winner getting around 22% of the entire entry. Therefore your strategy is different. You want to be one of the last 3 people standing.

This hand is an excellent example of where the strategy in the two razz worlds diverge. The hero has a short stack- some people think a short stack is less than 5 big bets (Forest in the FTP tournament book) I think anything less than a stack that will allow you to get in a full bet on every street is short. But anyway by almost every standard the hero is short stacked.

If we can all agree that the hero is short stacked then the opponents can also see that he is short stacked and therefore (assuming we have concluded through observation that the hero is a good player) they know that he is looking for a situation to get his whole stack in and try to double up.

The hero's stack while short is still large enough to do some serious damage to the stack of anyone who goes to the mat against him and loses. The hero is worried that the two big stacks have a 5 and an A in the door and it seems this is why he folded. The big stacks (should) understand that if the hero brings it in for a raise he is probably looking for a place to make a stand and has chosen this hand. The big stacks, if they play and lose, will lose 1/3 of their chip stacks. In this situation they wouldn't come in unless they had a good hand. In Lee Nelson's new book, Kill Everyone, he talks about "fear equity" which is the fear you can instill in your opponent by being the first into a pot for a raise (Lee is talking about NL tournaments but the theory still applies here). In otherwords the big stacks know that if they call they are not risking 2,000 chips but 14,000 will eventually go in the pot. In poker you want to put the decision onto your opponent and here, by raisng you are doing just that.

If you pass on this opportunity and wait for a good hand then your stack may be so small that people will call you with much worse hands just to bust you out. While the current levels are 2,000/4,000 we don't know how close, in time, we are to the levels increasing. Without checking my guess is the next level is probably something like 3,000/6,000 with a 500 ante and 1,000 bring in. So what kind of situation will the hero be in once the limits rise?

This looks like an opportunity to maybe pick up some needed chips or a time where if you get lucky your stack will be large enough to give you soem elbow room to play. If you wait untill your stack is lower and the limits are higher even if you do double up you will still be short stacked.

I apologize if this seems to ramble but as Mark Twain said "if I had more time this posting would have been shorter".

[Andy B]

It's hardly time to panic. There are too many good low cards behind you to consider playing this dog.

[ceegee]

Wait for a better position and better hand.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
It's hardly time to panic. There are too many good low cards behind you to consider playing this dog.

[/ QUOTE ] Well, I guess if everyone agrees, I am wrong. My end game in trnys is really in need of work, tho.' I am constantly getting deep or making a final table and then it seems to come apart. Or maybe my expectations are unrealistic.

So, out of a hundred tournaments, how often do you expect to win if you are playing at the same level of competence as your competition?