Lead, drawing behind on the turn?

[Bona]

I have only been at this table for 15 hands or so. The players are all loose preflop but less so post flop and none are really aggressive. I have no reason to doubt I will get at least 2 calls on my turn bet and I expect if I had checked someone would have bet it. I am willing to call a raise of course. Is leading here spew?


PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (17 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Is leading here spew?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You don't want to get raised and two calls isn't enough to make this a value play because of the chances that button is holding some of your supposed outs.

[tyler_cracker]

even assuming you want to raise for value, why would you donk? really bad. now if you want to c/r the turn if everyone calls, then we could talk.

if your donk gets raised here, you're probably not in very good shape anyway.

[OziBattler]

yep. spewy for reasons already covered. even though you have a monster draw your hand is just K high. just check and see what happens.

it is possible (but LDO not that likely given preflop action) the paired board with cards in the playzone that you could be drawing to 2 outs. your K and Q outs are probably pretty worthless.

[kav]

no reason to lead here.

what's the argument for c/r after everyone called?

[Bona]

Tyler brought that up and as he qualified it, "if everyone calls" we would be getting good odds on our draw. I think he's right. It's basically the same reason I was betting except with the c/r we would be assured of the drawing odds where betting out we have no such assurance. Arguably ~15 outs of 45 cards so I hit 0ne in 3 but am only putting in 1 in 4

[Sushiglutton]

I don't like it so much. It can't be for value and you have almost no chance to pick up the pot. Sometimes MP will raise which would be bad.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no reason to doubt I will get at least 2 calls on my turn bet and I expect if I had checked someone would have bet it. I am willing to call a raise of course. Is leading here spew?

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly not spew in light of the first highlighted portion, but I doubt that leading is the most profitable action given the second highlighted portion. Especially given that the flop aggressor is to your immediate left.

Also, what if MP raises your lead? Do you think there will be at least one cold-call?

Edit: yeah, Esk said it better than I did.

That said, Button possibly holding some of your outs doesn't make this spew, Aaron, it just makes it somewhat -EV if you only get 2 callers. The combination of BTN holding some of your outs plus the possibility that he or someone else has you drawing near-dead, on the other hand...