gutter+fd a little deep

[2Paul2]

Villain has been pretty tight(16/11) an sitting out alot for some reason.

Pf may look a little meh but were deepish an the 2 guys on my left dont seem to realise they're playing for real money an play like nearly all there hands.

I started out playing pretty aggro but have tightened up quite a bit recently when I realised the 2 guys on my left didnt have fold btns. I've worked my stack up mainly through value towning them.

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $1,128.25
Hero (SB): $679
BB: $386.95
UTG: $1,063.90
MP: $467
CO: $647.95

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $4, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $16</font>, Hero calls $14, BB folds, UTG calls $12

Flop: ($52) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $116</font>,

I was hoping the guy to my left would flat making villains raise alot bigger an a shove for me more natural or that villain would just make a bigger raise than he did anyway.

Given that didnt happen what do people think of:

~shoving anyway
~making a smaller 3bet in the 300-350 range
~calling an donking [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s an c/shoving anything else

Paul

[Isura]

I sometimes overbet shove with sets against these nitty types since I find they can't get away from overpairs so easily. So in this case I think a smaller raise looks more scary to them, 350 and call of the rest.

[Jamougha]

There's no sense in which this hand belongs in SSNL?

[2Paul2]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no sense in which this hand belongs in SSNL?

[/ QUOTE ]

I mostly post in ssnl an didnt rly think about it.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why all lines includes getting all-in almost 2 buy-ins deep vs a nit showing aggression. I'm sure your fe is very limited and at best you have 44% eq, at worst 13%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have ~40% equity v his range so I dont need much fe w/ all the money already in the pot to make getting it in a gd idea. I also think the hands I have the best equity against are by far the biggest parts of his range. I just wanted to see what people thought was the best way to maximise my fe.

I dont rly see anything wrong w/ calling an donking hearts, c/r:ing a straight but I think playing it more aggressivly fits better into my overall gameplan.

[ QUOTE ]
Calling and check/shoving a blank turn is by far the worst line suggested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree w/ people saying this. I didnt rly think about stack sizes.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I have ~40% equity v his range so I dont need much fe w/ all the money already in the pot to make getting it in a gd idea. I also think the hands I have the best equity against are by far the biggest parts of his range. I just wanted to see what people thought was the best way to maximise my fe.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't even think pushing is +ev. Given that you're deep vill needs to fold almost 25% and I don't think he will.


[ QUOTE ]
also think the hands I have the best equity against are by far the biggest parts of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
This doesn't make sense. Why would he be more likely to raise AA/KK/AQ than QQ/88?


[ QUOTE ]
I dont rly see anything wrong w/ calling an donking hearts, c/r:ing a straight but I think playing it more aggressivly fits better into my overall gameplan.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this line.


Edit for calcs:

EV when called:
0.4*(679 + 16 + 56) - 0.6(679 - 16 - 56) = -$64

When you push and he folds you win:
52 + 40 + 116 = +$208

He needs to fold:
64/(208 + 64) = 24%


This is actually even worse because he'll only fold hands you're in relatively good shape against which means your eq vs his calling range is less than 40%.

[spivey]

As others have said, you have to assume you have very little FE here.

So call, CRAI straights. Donk flush turns. Otherwise, fold unless you're getting really good odds.

[2Paul2]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't make sense. Why would he be more likely to raise AA/KK/AQ than QQ/88?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not that hes more likely to raise them its that theres alot more combos of them an I think he limps 88 behind some pf.

[Nielsio]

Results?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't make sense. Why would he be more likely to raise AA/KK/AQ than QQ/88?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not that hes more likely to raise them its that theres alot more combos of them an I think he limps 88 behind some pf.

[/ QUOTE ]
Easily cancelled out by the fact that he's more likely to raise a set 2 buy-in deep and that 33 isn't even included in his range. That pretty much makes up for him sometimes limping 88/33.

[Nielsio]

I think that once he raises, we really shouldn't overestimate our FE.

Our equity is pretty good though:

Board: Qc 8h 3h

Wins Ties Equity
40.85% 0.00% 40.85% ( Jh9h )
59.15% 0.00% 59.15% ( AQ,KK+,88,QQ )


I'm thinking raise/calling now or calling and c/f if you miss, c/r if you hit an offsuit T and if you flush I'm not sure which is the best; donking seems so transparent. c/shoving whiffed seems irrational against a tight, uncreative player, who's probably gonna snapcall you.