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#1
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200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
villain is 25/20/3.5. seems decent, but a huge loser in my db over 6K hands. i've 3-bet him this session 1 time from the blinds and he folded. other than that, no history this session.
Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter MP: $310.50 CO: $218.65 Hero (BTN): $239.80 SB: $215.85 BB: $161 UTG: $76.15 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $7</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $17 Flop: ($51) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">MP bets $32</font>, Hero ???? usually he's betting the flop here with the intention to 3-bet, amirite? who likes a call and who likes a raise? and why? personally, my instinct tells me to raise this because "OMG COMBO DRAW, 3BET POT." but i'm not so sure. thoughts? |
#2
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
Board: Kh Td 2d
Wins Ties Equity 54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK ) 44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd ) Raise/call |
#3
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d Wins Ties Equity 54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK ) 44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd ) Raise/call [/ QUOTE ] come on man, why did you even waste your time posting this? obviously I know our equity is very good, and obviously I'm not folding. my question was which is better? |
#4
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
your read? Will he call a raise/shove? (how much FE do you think you have?)
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs.... |
#5
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
[ QUOTE ]
your read? Will he call a raise/shove? (how much FE do you think you have?) I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs.... [/ QUOTE ] With the str8 draw as well, you dont even need much FE. I would just shove or raise depending on how you play your big hands on this flop normally. |
#6
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
[ QUOTE ]
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs.... [/ QUOTE ] If you think you have 15 outs most of the time then you should be shoving the flop all day since a) You have the best hand equity-wise and b) you often get a fold (which would be incorrect on his part given the odds he is getting) since the best hand he can have is TPGK. |
#7
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
[ QUOTE ]
since the best hand he can have is TPGK. [/ QUOTE ] is a set not part of his range here? |
#8
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
I like calling. I think his range is monsters and hands taking a shot on the flop that will check/fold turn. Against monsters (TT/KK/AA/AK) we don't love getting all in, and we will stack him on the turn if we hit. So I think we will be able to get him to fold all hands on the turn that would have folded to a raise on the flop, and still stack him if we hit on the turn if he has a big hand.
Obviously this line means we only see 4 cards, but I still think a call is good. |
#9
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Board: Kh Td 2d Wins Ties Equity 54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK ) 44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd ) Raise/call [/ QUOTE ] come on man, why did you even waste your time posting this? obviously I know our equity is very good, and obviously I'm not folding. my question was which is better? [/ QUOTE ] To me knowing the equity against that range was an important thing. It also showed me what I would do, and I had thought it would be reasonably obvious why. I could elaborate more on that ofcourse, but instead of asking for that in a normal way you do this which puts me off entirely. |
#10
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Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
I assume a push vs call descision
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 62.666% 62.51% 00.15% 5570 13.50 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs } Hand 1: 37.334% 37.18% 00.15% 3313 13.50 { AdJd } x82+y(z)=0 z=.37*267 -.62*215 z=98.79-133.33 z=-34.54 82x - 34.54y =0 82x - 34.54(100 - x)=0 x=3454/116.54 x=29% if you don't think you have 29% FE here than just call. pot will be 115, we will need to make only $15 when we hit (47-12)/12=1:3 32 *3=96, we're currently calling 32 in a 83 pot so we should make our money back and then some if we hit on the turn. I honestly don't think you can go wrong either way here. *I didn't even include AK in his range so realistically that means we could get by with even 26% FE |
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