10$ S&G: Inflection points bb vs sb

[binarysmil]

Hi,

What would you have done here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) by Hand Converter CG

MP (t4655)
Button (t3185)
Hero (t1200)
BB (t2210)
UTG (t2250)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1200</font>, BB calls t1050.

Flop: (t2400) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t2400) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t2400) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t2400

Thank you very much.

Read: Villain seems pretty good.

[RRizGod]

your not on the bubble yet. A good opponent might recognize your pushing light and call you light. I think its a fold most of the time.

[plexiq]

Q3o is probably a fold against all but the tightest opponents.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

SB push:
62.9%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q6o+ J2s+ J8o+ T3s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s

BB calls:
35.4%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q8s+ Q9o+ J9s+ JTo

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Q3o is probably a fold against all but the tightest opponents.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

SB push:
62.9%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q6o+ J2s+ J8o+ T3s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 65o 53s+ 43s

BB calls:
35.4%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K6o+ Q8s+ Q9o+ J9s+ JTo

[/ QUOTE ]

It's probably a push against all but the loosest opponents. No one in a $10 SNG is going to know how to call anywhere close to correctly. A few loose bozos might do it by accident occasionally.

[plexiq]

Hm, missed the buyin. You are right, it may not be too bad - but Q3o seems really borderline even then...you probably dont want to push with 0.0 Edge here.

[Crash0veride]

fold pre...shove is no good with 5-6 players.... establish a tighter image so you dont' get called lighter on bubble.

[DDBeast]

People don't call nearly loose enough as the nash equilibrium, easy push.

[Powers_That_Be]

agreed, they are way tigher than Nash. One thing I like to do when I look at those results is examine what 35% is. It's easy to say, "yeah, i think he'll call about 35% of the time" but when you look at what 35% of the time actually means ( calling with J9s), you realize he is rarely calling in that range. I would guess he is much closer to 25% (k9s, QJs), which would give you a significant edge.

[AMT]

the only reasons you should consider folding this are a) the bb is calling super loose or b) you have a good reason for manipulating FE by folding this hand now vs these opponents/stacks/reads etc...

[otc]

i fold pre flop

heres my take... you dont ever want to be called and be dominated... and Q3 is dominated by ATC ...

in this spot shove with Q8+