NL10 - straight on river. Fold, call or push to 1.3 x PSB ?

GrumpyB · #1 10-10-2007, 05:30 AM

Any help thoughts or comments on any street, much appreciated.

Reads: This was my tenth hand at this table, right after a couple of bad beats had kicked me out of an MTT – so I wasn’t really concentrating. Sorry, yeah, I know it’s dumb, but we can’t help it sometimes can we (or is it only me?) so no useful reads, but the table average for %players seeing the flop was around 45%. 

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (10 handed)

Villain (26.72)
UTG+1 (13.40)
EP1 (8.51)
EP2 (6.79)
MP1 (8.82)
Hero (9.75)
CO (13.06)
Button (2.35)
SB (7.95)
BB (1.77)

Preflop: Villain is UTG. Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG (villain) call 0.10, fold, EP1 call 0.10, 2 fold, Hero call 0.10, 2 fold, SB call 0.10, BB check

Flop: (0.50) 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)

SB check, BB check, villain bet 0.40, EP1 fold, Hero call 0.40, SB fold, BB fold

Turn: (1.24) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

 villain bet 0.70, Hero call 0.70

River: (2.57) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

 villain bet 3.40, Hero….. fold, call or push?

WantToLearn · #2 10-10-2007, 05:54 AM

w/ no reads, I just call here.

We have to win ~38% of the time.

Our hand is good often. Problem is, if we raise and he calls our raise, are we good then? That´s why I don´t raise here.

GrumpyB · #3 10-10-2007, 06:55 AM

Thanks 'WantToLearn' - that's just the kind of input I was looking for.

Just to let you know what I was thinking ... he has three BI in front of him so he probably isn't a fish. He called UTG and then raised on a flop with a K and two tens on the board. What could that be?

OK, a call UTG could be a medium pair, a couple of broadway cards (but not AK), or maybe something like AT. So the 0.40 bet into a 0.50 pot made something like KT+ look possible.

At this spot I had a total of 12 outs - nine for a flush + 3 for a straight (not double counting the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which would have given me a lovely running flush). With 12 outs I am at least going to call in the face of a possible TPGK - but decided against a raise.

8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn, and he bets just over half the pot. My 12 outs still look worth a call.

Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river giving me a straight, and he bets 3.40 into a pot of 2.57 - which would fit if he started with KQ and just made two pair.

So I pushed my straight.

WantToLearn · #4 10-10-2007, 07:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He called UTG and then raised on a flop with a K and two tens on the board. What could that be?

[/ QUOTE ]

Anything he limped with. Like, paired board, he might be giving it a try even if he missed. I don´t say it´s world class play to bet like pocket fours into such a big field, but I wouldn´t rule it out either.

[ QUOTE ]
Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river giving me a straight, and he bets 3.40 into a pot of 2.57 - which would fit if he started with KQ and just made two pair.

So I pushed my straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, KQ is the most likely hand here IMO. It means he bet the flop because his hand was decent, then he kind of "asked" if you have a ten when he made that smallish turn bet (still laying bad odds to a normal draw though), and come the river he now feels save.

Anyway - he sometimes has it and sometimes he will surprise us. Will he have it often if he calls the shove? There´s still ~$5 effective stacks behind.

By the way, this all follows your thought that he is an ok player. But - do not assume this simply because he has a big stack.
I don´t say that piece of information is worthless. Check out how many tables he´s playing. If he has a big stack and is playing like 8 to 12 tables at a time, all right. If he has a big stack and is playing one table, chances are you run into a lucky gambler. And again, sometimes we are right and sometimes they will surprise us.

Something else - when thinking about odds, consider that your so-called "outs" are worth less on a paired board!

GrumpyB · #5 10-10-2007, 08:01 AM

WantTo ...... you are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO right [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

He had 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and won with a Full House.

I wouldn't say this was a bad beat because as soon as I pushed and he called I thought, "oh [censored], he's got a Full House" (thinking KT or QT rather than 8T - but oh well).

It made me think of the rule 'don't raise on the river unless there are hands you beat that will fold and/or hands you beat that will call' - so I was pretty sure afterwards that I had been pretty dumb. Maybe I was hoping people who rush to say 'push' so I wouldn't feel so bad.

I now still reckon it was worth a call, but pushing was dumb.

WantToLearn · #6 10-10-2007, 08:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
WantTo ...... you are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO right [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Just guessing [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

All right, so he was not such a good player after all.

That was my other though: if he is a bad player, then trips are most likely. He does not have a full house when the flop comes (assuming they nearly always play it slow), then he´s trying for your to raise him on the turn (typical as well), and when the river comes he tries to get the money in after his slowplaying "succesfully" kept you in the hand. Standard line for bad players. They never understand that getting money in the pot early is what makes the really big pots in the end. That is... normaly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]