look, here's a difficult spot, LO8

[TxRedMan]

50-100 3 handed on FT

I open the button with A-J-5-6, SB 3 bets and the BB calls. BB is unknown. SB is bad imo but is probably a small winner over a small sample due to sh variance. Third orbit or so, so nothing worthy of calling a read or pattern, standard raise/re-raise sh pf wars.

so SB 3 bets, BB calls two cold, I call from the button.

Flop

J-5-2

bet, call, i raise, sb three bets, bb calls, i 4-bet, both call.

Turn

8h

check, check, bet, call, call

River

3h (completes a backdoor heart flush)

check, check, bet or check here?

i really dont think i'm ever getting c/r here w/o one of them having a wheel or a straight (and a big flush obv), and if i bet the river i am planning on calling a c/r, but not liking it. on the other hand, two pair and another A6-A7 are going to call a lot, in fact A6 is never c/f here imo, and i think 3-4 calls here a lot, also i think all two pair hands probably call a fair amount, so is there or is there not value in a river bet here? or should i just chalk this up to another high variance spot and move on, as was my initial idea. fwiw i also think that overall the SB will checkraise this river less frequently b/c he probably views me as strong and the BB as a calling station which he is. probably not worthy of swaying your decision, but something to consider.


what about the rest of the hand? haven't played LO8 in a while, touching up on things for cesars and foxwoods. although i'm sure it will be FR but w/e.


but most importantly, to bet or not to bet the river.



-Tex


edit: anyone else notice the few similarities that pop up between SH higher stakes LHE and short handed higher stakes LO8? i have to assume those concepts are responsible in part for the variance in the game. bet, bloat, call. bet, raise, float, bloat, call. meh.

[Buzz]

Hi Tex - I have not read your whole post yet - just up to your question:[ QUOTE ]
bet or check here?

[/ QUOTE ]I want to answer before I read what you have to say about the hand.

The immediate question is, "Does somebody have the flush or not?"

If someone had bet in front of you, there's enough in the pot to merit a call. That's true for you and true for your opponents. Thus if you bet and win, you should expect to get paid off by both opponents. You gain $50 in that case (because one of them almost surely wins low).

The obvious danger of betting is you may get check-raised. Let's suppose somebody with a good flush is planning a check raise. You lose $200 in that case. (You have to call here, because the check-raiser could be betting the nut low with a mediocre high).

In other words, I'm figuring that if you're up against the flush, you'll lose $200 by betting while if you're not, you'll win $50 by betting.

There are some other possible scenarios (You could win low, etc.), but in my mind they're all secondary.

Suppose somebody offered you a proposition: Take A-J-5-6-rainbow out of the deck and also take Jh-8-2-5h-3h out of the deck. Now deal out two four card hands from the remaining 43 cards. You pay $200 if at least one of the two hands has at least two hearts and you collect $50 if neither of the two hands has at least two hearts.

Would you take the bet? If you bet here, I see you taking that proposition. If you check, I see you rejecting that proposition.

Decided?

Notice that the money already in the pot is not at issue. If you have a share of that money coming, you'll get it, because you cannot fold here. A fold here would be terrible. And if you don't have anything coming, then you're not going to get anything. You're not realistically going to blow anyone out of the pot by betting here. They're either probably both going to call your bet, or one of them will check-raise.

At least one of your opponents will have a flush a little better than a third of the time (~35%). Thus for every two times your two pair wins for a sub total of $100, your two pair loses once for a sub total of -$200.

And thus it's a terrible bet on your part.

Check behind them.

O.K., now I'm going to finish reading your post.

O.K., I have finished reading it.

[ QUOTE ]
but most importantly, to bet or not to bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]Don't bet the river. Simply check and hope.

Buzz

[Truthiness24]

Bet? Given the action on the turn, it feels like often enough you're good at least for low. You are sometimes (but rarely) good for high, and you may have a tiny bit of fold equity too. If SB is bad like you say, which I interpret to mean "predictable," among other things, he'll have a hard time not betting out on the river if he made a cinch hand with the 3.

[prodonkey]

Buzz you neglect any possibility of a scoop?

BB is a station and obviously could be clinging on with A4, but he could have A3 or 34 or 2 smaller pair which we scoop. SB could very well have a3.. he could have a set of 2's.. he really liked his hand on the flop.. then not so much on the turn or river.

I'd bet the river, why would SB go for a check raise if he just hit his A4 or backdoor hearts. A3 is one of your likely holdings and you're going to check behind on that 3 since you're not likely to bluff 2 people out of the pot, one of them being a calling station.

Prolly not a ton of value here in a bet but if both are bad and will pay off you should bet, since you also have a reasonable (although not likely) chance of scooping, imo.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz you neglect any possibility of a scoop?

[/ QUOTE ]Not really, ProDonkey, I just didn't write about the possibility.

(I almost wrote about it, but decided to focus on what I saw as the main issue, and an easy way to view the situation).

Seems to me Hero's chance for a scoop is poor. He does have the second nut low, but could easily be up against a wheel or another ace-six. He does have two pairs, but could be up against a flush, wheel, set, or higher two pairs.

Because of the size of the pot, a single bet has no knock-out power. And as a value bet, it's simply weak, IMHO.

Buzz

[1MoreFish4U]

Based on the way the hand played out, I would pretty much always check this river.

Just based on the fact that the BB apparently could have been on any kind of hand, you cant discount the backdoor hands he may have made.

I would consider myself fortunate to occasionally scoop this, but expect more often than not to gain nothing from the river bet while risking losing more.

[Shabamabam]

Is anyone else worried that by betting, we're only getting 1/4 back?

[donger]

I think there's some value in a river bet. I think SB's donking range would be stronger than his CRing range, to avoid blowing BB out when you guys are chopping him up. I think their checks represent legit weakness enough for this to be profitable. You could even scoop here occasionally, stranger things have happened.