200 nl (pocket pair turned into bluff)

[GUG01]

Villain is a regular 13.4/8.5/3.29 tag, 76% c/ bets over 1k sample

Thoughts on the line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($216.20)
UTG+1 ($108)
MP1 ($175)
MP2 ($243.90)
MP3 ($125.60)
CO ($200.10)
Hero ($278.20)
SB ($105.30)
BB ($247.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls $8, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($19) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, UTG calls $26.

Turn: ($99) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $72</font>

[BT2]

for this move to work, you must have a nitty image.

[Renton]

spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[/ QUOTE ]

agree

[HughJass]

[ QUOTE ]
spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[/ QUOTE ]
Since the villain plays 13/8, shouldn't he put OP on a set?

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[/ QUOTE ]
Since the villain plays 13/8, shouldn't he put OP on a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

are you autoraising a set on this flop? Its a lot more standard for a set to just call on this flop. Raising is pretty much repping what OP has 60% of the time and a set 40% of the time. Your going to see a ton of midpairs if you look this up imo. However, many retarded opponents will put OP on a jack and fold so it depends on how bad he is.

[Mr_Donktastic]

I don't f around with 13/8's UTG raises.

ESPECIALLY IF THEY CALL A FLOP RAISE.

You can't rep a J either unless you are bad.

[HughJass]

[ QUOTE ]
for this move to work, you must have a nitty image.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that sums it up pretty well. Isn't JJ in our range here too? If UTG's range is AA-TT and AK, shouldn't we be calling with JJ preflop rather than 3betting?

I think this bluff is reasonable if the UTG player is capable of folding an overpair. He plays a 13/8 style, raised in EP and may be check/folding an overpair to a big turn bet. If you're not known for bluffing he's gotta be thinking he's up against a set.

The above posters who criticize this bluff probably play a 16/12 style and never fold overpairs because people playback/call them down much lighter When a 13/8 raises in EP and gets raised on the flop he's up against a set much more often.

[HughJass]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising is pretty much repping what OP has 60% of the time and a set 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
So shouldn't he just reverse these to make it unprofitable for his opponent to look him up? Adjust his bluffing frequency to have a midpair 40% of the time and a set 60% of the time when he raises on the flop so that his opponent can't profitably call the raise

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising is pretty much repping what OP has 60% of the time and a set 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
So shouldn't he just reverse these to make it unprofitable for his opponent to look him up? Adjust his bluffing frequency to have a midpair 40% of the time and a set 60% of the time when he raises on the flop so that his opponent can't profitably call the raise

[/ QUOTE ]

well yea, he could only raise sets and raise them 100% of the time, but you'd have to be playing vs. a monkey to make that profitable. If you're raising here with a range heavily weighted towards sets then anyone reasonably competent is going to make it unprofitable for you to set mine against.