Fold Equity Question

NicholasJ · #1 10-03-2007, 07:37 PM

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $206
Hero: $204
SB: $522
BB: $63.80

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($15, 2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero raises all-in $197.

What percent of the time does villain need to fold to make this shove +EV, assuming that I am on average 40% to win when he calls?

Imrahil · #2 10-03-2007, 07:41 PM

This is fine because villain is short. I may just raise to like $60 though.

freshbeats · #3 10-03-2007, 07:41 PM

villain has just put 1/5 of his stack in the middle, what makes you think he's going to fold? without doing the math i'm going to assume that it's nowhere near often enough to make this +ev.

KhalynYohrk · #4 10-03-2007, 07:41 PM

Villain is short so w/e what about vs a full stack? Its prov -ev by a solid margin.

thac · #5 10-03-2007, 07:44 PM

Who cares if he folds, we got a flush draw!

TwistedEcho · #6 10-03-2007, 07:45 PM

not doing math for you,but the hand is reaaaally standard. I prob just raise smaller since i think shoving looks weaker, but basically same thing

relativity_x · #7 10-03-2007, 07:47 PM

You don't need FE here:

EV of push = 71.8*.4-41.8*.6=+3.64

dotbum · #8 10-03-2007, 08:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You don't need FE here:

EV of push = 71.8*.4-41.8*.6=+3.64

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't we risking 56.80 here? Making it -6.64 ev, meaning we need ~20% fe without doing the Maths. Given the action I don't think bb is ever folding.

It's late here, so I could be totally wrong.

NicholasJ · #9 10-03-2007, 08:14 PM

Well solving for A = Fold% my math looks like this:

0 = A($27) +(1-A)(0.4($72)) -(1-A)(0.6($57)
0 = $27A + (1-A)($28.8 - $34.2)
= $27A + (-$5.4) + $5.4A
$5.4 = $32.4A
A = 0.17

So, if he folds 17% of the time or more this is good. Not sure why I would raise less unless I have a specific read that he is more likely to fold to smaller bets.

tubasteve · #10 10-03-2007, 08:18 PM

we have fd and overcard, its plus ev. dont overanalyze it yo