Turn semi-bluff against a TAGish character

BrassMonkey · #1 09-21-2007, 08:35 AM

Villian has a bit of showdown monkey in him (he'll call down with most pairs), but very TAGish pre-flop stats. It may be that this turn raise isn't good against a guy like that, but this raise is totally standard against a TAG that can fold, no?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises

Oink · #2 09-21-2007, 08:45 AM

Villain can have 3 possible hands: A draw, air, a made hand.

- Vs made hands.

These are 7x, 5x, 3x, sets, 2 pair, A4 and 64.

- How many of these is he gonna fold? My guess is very few.
- How many of them is he gonna 3-bet? At least the straights and likely the sets. Possibly even 2 pair hands.
- Against the hands he wont 3-bet but call down your raise accomplishes nothing. You loose when you miss and you dont win extra when you hit as you could have raised the river.

- Vs draws.

- Since a raise will make him c/f river with a missed draw your raise doesnt win anything extra IF he would have 3 barreled it.
- If he hits his draw and you follow through UI on the river your raise makes you loose 1 extra bet compared to calling down.
- If you both hit your draw on the river you hit the jackpot and the raise will win you monies.

- Vs air.

If he has air then your best play is to call down as the pot isnt big enough for you to want him to fold his 4 outer compared to having him 3 barrel UI.

So all in all I'd say that raising is a mistake. He doesnt fold a better hand here often enough and against almost all holdings your are better of just calling.

mvoss · #3 09-21-2007, 08:56 AM

He'll raise a pretty wide range on that flop and never fold a better hand on the turn. Just call down.

danzasmack · #4 09-21-2007, 01:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He'll raise a pretty wide range on that flop and never fold a hand on the turn. Raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That, IMO, is how you should be thinking.

But i totally repsect other people's play style. Note i'm not a crazy lag by ANY means anymore. But I know a great spot to be agressive when i see one.

mvoss · #5 09-21-2007, 01:07 PM

I respect all people in this thread as well. I think calling and raising are both +EV plays, but I do think calling is slightly better. But then again my overall AF is closing in on 1.5...

ILOVEPOKER929 · #6 09-21-2007, 12:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So all in all I'd say that raising is a mistake. He doesnt fold a better hand here often enough and against almost all holdings your are better of just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread's over now becuz somebody who finally made sense spoke up.

danzasmack · #7 09-21-2007, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So all in all I'd say that raising is a mistake. He doesnt fold a better hand here often enough and against almost all holdings your are better of just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread's over now becuz somebody who finally made sense spoke up.

[/ QUOTE ]
I read the post again to make sure i didn't mess up the PF action or something like that like i do a lot of times on fridays, but I didn't.

We have a gutshot, 2 overs, and a flush draw. That's as many as 18 outs right? His range on the flop includes draws that will call our turn raise that we can with vs. UI. This guy is not a loose/passive donk - he is a taggish stats pf showdown bound type player. This, IMO means he will call our raise with a lot of subpar holdings. This also means that we win 3 bets just about every time we hit.

A raise is fine. A call is CLEARLY correct, but I just like a raise better in this spot. I'm going to pick spots to be aggro on the turn with showdown value and this is my one in this session.

Also - oink replied 1st. So it wasn't finally. holla.

danzasmack · #8 09-21-2007, 12:53 PM

"A call is CLEARLY correct"

And by this i meant that folding is a mistake.

Oink · #9 09-21-2007, 01:05 PM

You wanna free SD raise when

a) you can fold a better hand

b) you can fold to a 3-bet

c) Villain wont fire his worse hands again on the river.

I doubt any of these conditions are fulfilled in this spot so I like calling better than raising.

That said. Raising cant be a huge mistake as hero has so many outs and I doubt it matters much what you do here.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #10 09-21-2007, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You wanna free SD raise when

a) you can fold a better hand

b) you can fold to a 3-bet

c) Villain wont fire his worse hands again on the river.

I doubt any of these conditions are fulfilled in this spot so I like calling better than raising.

That said. Raising cant be a huge mistake as hero has so many outs and I doubt it matters much what you do here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again I dont have to post anything meaningful becuz Oink explains it perfectly why this turn raise cannot be better than calling down in a vacuum. The only thing I want to add is that Oinks point B) about being able to fold to a 3bet, is not strictly true but is dependent on how much fold equity we have. Obviously the higher our fold equity the more likely it will be worth freeshowdowning the turn even if we have to call a 3bet. However, most of the time Oink's point B will be valid since our FE will generally not be high enough to overcome the dangers of having to call a 3bet.