NL50: Set vs shortie and deep stack agressor

[ranka]

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
10 players
Converter

Hero: $61.12
UTG+1: $66.32
UTG+2: $39.08
MP1: $79.82
MP2: $50.88
MP3: $15.01
CO: $48.74
Button: $16.77
SB: $28.42
BB: $48.50

Reads:
UTG+1: 15/7/1.1; CBET: 44% - 19,514 hands
MP3: 12/2/0.5 - 148 hands

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($12.25, 6 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $6.12</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises all-in $13.01</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises or calls?</font>

Which one is better - calling or raising and why.

[CallMeJohn]

You have 20K hands on UTG+1. What does his flop donk bet mean?

I'm leaning to call because MP3's raise will reopen the betting for UTG+1 and he might raise over the top. If you raise, he can fold a lot of hands here.

If he just calls, then push any turn.

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 20K hands on UTG+1. What does his flop donk bet mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

He´s c-betting 44% of the time. That means something like he´s betting whenever he connected to the flop in some serious way, nearly all pairs plus draws probably.

[CallMeJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have 20K hands on UTG+1. What does his flop donk bet mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

He´s c-betting 44% of the time. That means something like he´s betting whenever he connected to the flop in some serious way, nearly all pairs plus draws probably.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was looking for some info about bet sizing. For example, was does he have when he makes a 1/2 PSB vs what he has when he makes a full PSB. Is his bet a weak stab at the pot or does he want action? If you can intrpret his raise one way or the other, that will make your decision easier.

[No1Addict]

I think AI is a better move because:
1. If he has the draw you need to make him pay for it.
2. If he does have a one pair hand he might read you for a big combo draw and call. I think he'll fold TP most of the time but if he has aces or AK with the ace of clubs he's likely to call.

A flat call spells trap here and you don't want to get him scared.

Furthermore, if he doesn't have the club draw a club on forth street will kill your action with this guy.

[PokerFun007]

I also think shoving is your best +EV play. He may think you're trying to isolate on the short stack and make a terrible call. Also, several scary cards can come on the turn that make your decision difficult. Make your opponents mistakes big!