NL 25 6-max: flush draw + gutshot, how agressive should I be?

[Marc Desjardins]

I'm just coming out of a bad downswing. I've been reading a lot here and watching videos on cardrunners. I read many Pokey post and I'm trying to play a little less agressive preflop. I limp small pocket pair in EP now instead of always raising. I'm also trying limping suited aces in EP instead of folding. Basically, I want to play more smaller pots and hope to hit big.

So, this brings me to this hand. Vilain is 36, 8, 1.69 in 75 hands. He started very loose, won some big pots by sucking out but he's been losing it all back and he plays tighter now.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $3.25
BB: $24.15
Hero (UTG): $33.70
CO: $25.30
BTN: $27.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
Hero calls $0.25, <font color="red">CO raises to $0.50</font>, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.55</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $3.10</font>, 3 folds, Hero...

I think one big leak I use to have was not pushing hard with multi-draws on the flop. But I still have a hard time pulling the trigger in those situations.

What's my line here and why?

Thanks in advance

[CruS]

raise all pocket pairs
don't limp
2 cents

[TheRenaissance]

bet all the chips

[whyzze]

I open with this hand UTG and then try and get it in the flop.

limping this had UTG is -EV long run.

[CruS]

I don't like opening with Axs UTG, at least not all the time.

[TheRenaissance]

I fold preflop usually FWIW.

That said, there is no clear right or wrong way to play this hand preflop. It depends on the table. If you have several very loose passive callstations behind you, who calls way to much preflop and on the flop, limping with speculative hands in EP may be the way to go.

Note that you wont get much respek from your 2p2 smartLAG peers when you do it though.

[Marc Desjardins]

I understand that limping Axs preflop might be -EV... I use to fold that all the time. And I might actually start doing it again.

But in this case, I'm mostly interested in the line I should take after the flop.

Thanks

[monkeymaps]

weither to limp/raise/fold Axs and small PPs is very table dependent and I think its kind of a leak to rigidly say you should always raise/fold/limp these hands without taking game flow into account. If you were getting 3bet alot you prob wouldnt want to raise Axs UTG for example.

[doppelganger]

The reason you want to push is that you have almost 50% equity right now, so it's not a tragedy if you get called by a better hand. You want to fold out hands that are beating you right now like A5 and weak Kx hands that are afraid of kicker trouble.

[Antinome]

Nobody wants to comment on his minbet-minraise line?

That's very often a monster. Worse, he only raises 8% (88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+), he isn't super aggressive, AND he's 'playing tighter' than he was earlier. Doesn't that often add up to a huge hand (99+,AQs+,AKo,KQs)?

Alright, it might be AQ, 99-QQ (36 Combinations) frustration raising. But a lot of the time it's a hand he'll have a lot of trouble folding... AA,AK,KK,KQ (26 Combinations)

EVpush=(36/62)(2.50+1.55+3.10)+(26/62)((.47)(50.6)-.53(50.6))
=4.15-1.27 = +2.87

But if you call once to hit the turn with 96%+ equity and he has trouble folding those same hands...

EVturn=(.76)(-1.55)+(.26)((4.15)+(26/62)((.96)(50.6)-(.04)(50.6)))
= -1.18+6.13 = +4.95

I'll admit the read on him has to be pretty good that he can't get away from those hands before calling is better, but considering the EV boost, it is worth considering.

If you don't know, pushing is +EV.