99 against loose opponent

[Aces McGee]

Villain here is something of a showdown monkey. He bets when checked to quite a bit, but isn't super aggressive.

History with villain includes this hand:

Villain raises in MP, I 3bet with red queens. Flop is AJ4 rainbow. I bet, he calls. Turn is a king, completing rainbow. I check, he bets, I call. River is another king, I check/call and beat his QJ.

On this hand, I open in the hijack with 99. He 3 bets in the BB, I cap.

Flop is Ac Qs 7c (I don't have the 9c). He leads. My plan?

-McGee

[Mitke]

Since you capped raising here might get you to showdown cheaper by taking a free card if the villain is(?) passive enough to give you that. This might also induce a river bluff. I think we'd also have an easy fold on the flop if we get 3-bet (assuming the villain wouldn't do this OOP with a draw or as a bluff, which seem reasonable assumptions to make based on your reads).

Folding to a single bet after capping preflop feels alien to me. However, you could be beaten and badly so already + the board is drawy.

I wouldn't feel comfortable surrending the flop straight on without more accurate reads so I guess I'd raise trying to get to showdown cheaply and plan to fold if met with more aggression on the flop or turn.

[Rico Suave]

AcesMcGee:

I fold. I would hang my head in shame and disgust, but I would fold. There are those players where I would call down in a heartbeat, but this guy doesn't necessarily sound like one of those types. Your effective odds are, what, 6.5:2.5, as he is likely to bet every street based on your read. So maybe you are ahead now 1/3 of the time...but you are going to get out drawn a good chunk of the time..with little chance of outdrawing him when behind.

I often I feel I play too weakly in these spots by folding so easily, but fwiw, that is how I would play it.

--Rico

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I did.

[ QUOTE ]
I would hang my head in shame and disgust

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I posted.

-McGee

[TheCount212]

First hand well played.. villain had 2nd pair and a straight draw, so not exactly maniacal.

To each his own, but I wouldn't cap 99. Ever. But you did, and I'm kind of a rock, so... now you have a flop with 2 overs (not surprising holding nines) and a flush draw.

Folding seems like a good plan, since you have no draw and 1 of your two outs makes the flush. After all, if he's a showdown monkey (me too), he's not going anywhere.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
To each his own, but I wouldn't cap 99. Ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Anything I'm willing to open raise with in late position, I'm willing to cap with heads up. That doesn't mean I always cap when given the opportunity in those spots; far from it. But if you don't mix up how you play in these situations, you become easily exploitable and you're better off staying out of them.

-McGee

[TheCount212]

Good point. I'm not a good example, but I usually will cap AA-QQ and AKs.. maybe AKo if I'm feeling frisky. Since I started playing NL I'm comfortable capping with hands I'd push with. So JJ or less I just want to see a flop cheap. Whether this is + or - EV I'm sure someone will tell me..

[James.]

i think you need to peel in this spot.

if he has a powerful hand why isn't he checkraising? as the pf capper, we bet the flop 100% of the time when checked to. that makes me think his is donk is a "feeler" bet of some sort. usually a queen, but he's obviously capable of betting less than top or second pair. he's also capable of firing on scary boards with weak hands. he could be betting a hand like KJ/KT, a club draw, or some other random pocket pair.

since there's 9sb in the pot, i'm at least peeling here most of the time. something that needs to be factored into this decision is the frequency with which he will be checking the turn after our flop call. based on the pf action he could very well be expecting us to hold off until fourth street and raise the turn when he bets. this will often cause him to go into a defensive mode with alot of his lower-tier holdings(even those that are beating us). this would mean he's checking the turn some reasonable amount of the time. getting to the river for one sb in that pot is great, and certainly worth the flop peel(even including the times he follows up on the turn).

i guess an argument for raising the flop, checking the turn and showing down for 2bb can be made. i also think raising the flop, betting the turn and checking the river could be discussed, as well. a free showdown raise is certainly something to consider, also. mostly, though, i would probably call the flop and see what the turn brings before i commit. if it's an Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten, or club i'm definitely not inclined to showdown. if it's a relative rag it's time to play some poker, but err on the side of being conservative. there is something to be said for the fact that we capped pf and on that board he's donking into us. still, something is unorthodox about his bet.

i also wanted to point out(when referring to the question i posed as to why villain didn't c/r the flop if he had a good hand) that an argument can be made that he's trying to bet/3bet. my counter to that would be that he likely isn't smart enough to understand the concept of bet/3betting so he's going to default to what crappy players do when they have a strong hand: checkraise just like they do on TV.

[Aces McGee]

James, thoughtful post. Thanks.

I didn't have a ton of history with this guy, but I got the feeling that he wasn't the type to stop betting. He did, after all, continue to bet that QJo hand. So while many players will check the turn without an ace if I call the flop, I don't think we can say that he would.

If I do call the flop and he checks to me on the turn, I think I have to bet, unless I plan on folding the river -- which would mean that I shouldn't have called the flop.

-McGee

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
He did, after all, continue to bet that QJo hand. So while many players will check the turn without an ace if I call the flop,

[/ QUOTE ]

Except you bet the flop and checked the turn into him on that hand and he did have 2nd pair.

The 99 hand is a little different. He isn't being induced to bet on the flop. He's betting into a preflop capper. That tends to say he has a good holding.

b