help on proving poker is not about luck

[ycjason]

I want to create a graph to show to a friend to prove that poker is not about luck in the long run

for example, if I have the following data over reasonable sample size (does sample size even matter here? but let's say 50k hands at 1/2)
winrate = 5ptbb/100
SD/100 = 45ptbb

I want a graph that shows on Y Axis the % of likelihood that you will be a winner and X Axis the number of hands you played. I would imaging the graph should start around 50% and moving very close to 100% after 100k hands

Also, if possible, a graph that shows medium/average (even better if it's possible to get numbers of 25%, 50%, 75%) $$ won on Y Axis over # of hands played on X Axis.

Can someone good with stats help me generate those graphs or give me some hint on how to get the numbers (formulas, links).

Thanks a lot!

[sawseech]

the median player loses and alot of the players above him lose too

rake

[ycjason]

medium here is not the player's level, but luck factor. The player level is determined by winrate + SD

I am assuming the $$ won calculated over a # of random event should be a bell curve, and 25%, 50%, 75% would be 3 points on that curve. if we use the giving winrate (5ptbb/100) and SD (45ptbb/100), I am guessing even the 25% point should be a sizable winner over 100k hands. Oh, and rake shouldn't be a factor as it is already included in the winrate

[ycjason]

I doubt a game where short term result track long term win rates could be very popular at all. Since in such a game, the losing player loses all the time (not a lot each time, but slowly and surely), what make you think they would want to play such a game?

[rufus]

An alternative would be to demonstrate that skill is a big factor in a simpler game. For example, you could play a few rounds of one card limit poker (which is relatively easy to solve) against him, and see how he fares.

[99killed]

simple dumb argument.
chess is all skill - lots of books written about it.
bingo is all luck - none or very feww books written about it.

lots of books written about poker, thus....

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
simple dumb argument.
chess is all skill - lots of books written about it.
bingo is all luck - none or very feww books written about it.

lots of books written about poker, thus....

[/ QUOTE ]I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GETTING AT!

ROULETTE AND CRAPS ARE GAMES OF SKILL TOO!

[ycjason]

no one here knows how to create those graphs??

I thought the first graph could be created using a formula similar to the Risk of Ruin calculation? can anyone who's familiar with that calculation give me some suggestions? thanks!