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#1
09-11-2007, 11:53 PM
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I turned the nuts
Sorry to post a nut hand, but I don't think I played this right.
Full Tilt 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, Button calls. Flop: (9.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, MP calls, Button calls. Turn: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero??? 
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#5
09-11-2007, 11:57 PM
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Re: I turned the nuts
yep i call here so that the other two call. then on the river u will have to use ur judgement as to where the most value is.
probably on the river ull either want to bet out, or c/r button if you assume that the BB and MP wont call ur bet out on a river.
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#6
09-12-2007, 12:01 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
Wetdog, Bigka,
What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player in the middle will call a single bet? What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player will call two bets? How often does button each call, raise, or fold if we 3bet? One of you guys, use these estimations to prove to me mathematically that calling is better than 3-betting.
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#7
09-12-2007, 12:21 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
Wetdog, Bigka, What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player in the middle will call a single bet? What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player will call two bets? How often does button each call, raise, or fold if we 3bet? One of you guys, use these estimations to prove to me mathematically that calling is better than 3-betting. [/ QUOTE ] honestly, i think i might be wrong here. i might have to retract my previous statement. i say they both call the one bet 6 times out of 10. i also say that one calls the 3-bet 3 times out of 10. button is probably only folding 1-10, calling 7-10, capping 2-10 when the person in middle calls 2 and button calls, were already showing a bigger profit (i.e. one bet) than we would by getting both to cold call 2. obviously if button raises we show the biggest profit because we get 2 bets of dead money more in the pot. however if we conditionally take into account that there could possibly be 7 river cards (spades, this is discounting out the two we got, 3 on board) that could pay us off. however i think this chance is totally negated by the fact we can only squeeze one bet from a villian river as we have the top 2 flush cards in our hand and no one will be able to make a raise with a small flush. so i think that once we can discount the river due to a call of one bet on the turn not netting more value on the river. with all these scenarios being played out i think we have to 3-bet. there really isnt any other way and i was wrong when i said it b4. i think i have been playing situations like this wrong in the past. glad i worked that out
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#8
09-12-2007, 02:30 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
1. What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player in the middle will call a single bet? [/ QUOTE ] 85% Maybe a little lean but not too far off. I'm using the two in the middle as a unit here. [ QUOTE ] 2. What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player will call two bets? [/ QUOTE ] 40% I believe that the two caught in the middle will sense being squeezed, which will carry thru the river. So I said 1 will call 80% of the time and one will fold. Again using the two as a unit. [ QUOTE ] 3. How often does button each call, raise, or fold if we 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] 50%, 50% and 0% So: 1. 85% of 2 BB = 1.7 2. 40% of 4 BB = 1.6 3a. 50% of 1 BB = 0.5 3b. 50% of 2 BB = 1.0 If 1 then 3a so 2.2 If 2 then 3b so 2.6 a raise gets you .4 BB Then the river: (Assuming hero still has the nuts and the board doesn't pair giving someone a possible boat) 1 + 3a) Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls, Button raises, Hero 3 balls, one call, one fold, button caps, hero calls, one call. 14 BB 2 + 3b) Hero bets, one call, Button raises, Hero 3 balls, one call, one fold, button caps, hero calls, one call. 12BB Total: 1 + 3a 14 + 2.2 = 16.2 2 + 3b 12 + 2.6 = 14.6 With only one other player in the middle on the turn, I'm busting it open there on the turn. But with two putting in a little more wood keeping their hands warm, I want them around to stoke the fire on the river. edit: I think this is the longest strat post I have ever written. I'm an old man and it's way past bedtime for me. I'll look at this tomorrow and go, "WTF? What drunkass maroon put up all that drivel?" Then I'll feel the strain in my strat muscle and drink some coffee.
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#10
09-11-2007, 11:57 PM
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Re: I turned the nuts
lol? i don't get it -- is this a trick?
ps. 3bet
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