NL50: AA vs c/r on flop, drawy board

[AlexB182]

Villain is 15/8.8/1.5 over about 300 hands, I played my ususal 22/12 game so far. Haven't seen her/him doing anything out of line so far, seems to be pretty standard TAG...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($117.85)
SB ($142.35)
BB ($8.50)
Hero ($68.10)
UTG+1 ($48.75)
MP1 ($53.45)
MP2 ($49.95)
MP3 ($34.40)
CO ($17.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $21</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero ?

[CazicT]

Range
Likely:
88, 77, AQ

Somewhat Likely:
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] QQ (probably would reraise PF though)

Less Likely:
87s, KK, AA, other FD, straight draw, bluffs with JJ/TT or similar

So your beating AQ basically and bluffs/semi-bluffs. I guess i'd call it and re-evaluate, but us being out of position really blows.

I'd have to say i'd be lost as to what to do on the turn though. Unless we spike A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I won't feel super confident. And any bet on the turn will set us up to be all-in on the river. We could CRAI on a blank turn I guess, we might get paid off from AQ, but I have a bad feeling about that move.

Sorry i'm not much help, lol.

Edit: And your title says c/r, but this is just a straight raise on the flop...

[AlexB182]

Oh yes, you're right about the title, thanks a lot.
Ok, call and reevaluate on turn looked good to me, too:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Turn: ($50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $94.85 (All-In)</font>, Hero ?

[threads13]

I think this flop is a genuinely hard spot. You have a somewhat drawy board and a deep stacked opponent behind you and you aren't committed against him. If he is tricky enough to raise this with a FD then I think you may just want to check he flop. This is fine if you expect him to bet in most spots here. You really don't want to be raised and you really don't want to give a free card so it depends on your exact read on him. I bet you wish you had one.... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I don't think you have a decision to even make on the turn. That turn card changes nothing. You should have made your decision about a turn card like this one the flop.

Think about what you said when you called the flop. You are saying, "I don't think he has a set here often enough to fold and I think he has TPTK-type hands and FD hands often enough to call. Therefore, I can commit on any non-spade turn card." MAYBE you aren't sure whether or not he will continue to bet his worse hands on the turn in which case it is a fold on the turn. If you weren't sure what he would do on a turn card you are setting yourself up for a fall.

So, I think if you are calling the flop then you are calling this turn card.

[MarcusT]

Given his stats I don't believe he has a draw or a pair. Dumping AA is hard so I probably would mistakenly have called flop. Turn is a fold for sure.

[AlexB182]

Thanks for your input, threads!

[ QUOTE ]

So, I think if you are calling the flop then you are calling this turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right this turn is pretty much a blank, it only fills up some OESD with 69 which I can't see him playing (even in spades)...
Yet, this AI on the turn told me one thing (well, I guess it told me, of course), namely that he don't have a hand like TPTK. From his playing before this hand, this move just did not fit to such a holding, IMO. So that leaves us with a big bluff, a very aggressively played big draw (like T9 of spades) or a set, right? Problem is, I just can't imagine this is a big bluff here...
Immediately after the hand, I though folding on the flop would ve been the right move. Does someone agree on that?