200NL - Turned set faces heat

[the_main]

Villian runs about 17/11/1.65 over 600 hands. Only hand I can remember between us is him calling my cont. bet in position, and then I check/folded the turn to him.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $194.30
BB: $197.00
the_main (UTG): $237.50
UTG+1: $306.75
MP1: $184.80
MP2: $485.80
CO: $198.00
BTN: $196.40

Preflop: the_main is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 Players)
<font color="red">the_main raises to $8.00</font>, 3 folds, CO calls $8.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">the_main bets $12.00</font>, CO calls $12.00

Turn: ($43) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">the_main bets $32.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $78.00</font>, the_main ?

[soah]

your hand is not good

edit: I take that back. sometimes you'll see something worse do this for a "free showdown"

so call and fold river unimproved

[Larude]

I think he puts you on AK,AQ,AJs... This could be JTs,87s,97s,98s,AcQc,AcJc,AcTc, hell even A9s,A8s,A7s,Ac6c if he is loose in position. You only loose to 88, 99 and JTs; if you call here you getting 1:3 on the river, that are huge odds. So I think shoving is in order.

[sambo_888]

I would call turn hoping for the board to pair however...

The near minimum raise looks alot like he has JT. I think if he had A9/A8/A7/89/88/99 he would raise alot more on turn because it is a scary board and that raise is basically begging for a call/reraise.

Shoving is an option however I wouldnt do it in this situation.

[effang]

c/c the river.

so many 2p's etc. that he could have here that you are crushing. he's pretty passive, probably not raising his strong hands on the flop all that often.

[KurtSF]

Ouch. That's frickin' ugly. It really looks like JTs.

I think I talk myself into thinking he's got A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and call to re-evaluate the river, but I don't like it.

Meh, you're getting better than 3:1 to boat up, I think a call is fine.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
your hand is not good

[/ QUOTE ]
Why can't he have two pair?

[CazicT]

He's probably almost as likley to have 2 pair has he is to have a straight, but it's the possibility of the overpairs that are really scary to me.

Can he really have A8 and the like? I was giving him credit for only 98s, 78s, and 76s, of which there aren't really that many combos.

[FireStorm]

Calling here is fine, re-eval river. Yes this can bet 88/99/JT sometimes, but not often enough to blanket-statement "your hand is not good".

[Larude]

Can hero fold to an allin on the river if he is getting 1:3 (he needs to be good 25% of the time....)???