turn play with bottom set on a horrible board

criminaldave · #1 09-09-2007, 07:50 PM

UTG is some unknown and so far looks to be pretty bad. Button is 'mike_the_cat'. My initial impression of him was that he liked to reraise light and win pots through sheer aggression. However, we have now played about 1200 hands and he is solid. 18/15/ and seems to read hands pretty well.

His preflop raise is any pair, AK or some suited connectors. His call on the flop narrows his range somewhat. I think he raises a higher set because of the drawy nature of the board. So we're left with AA, KK, JT or some sort of diamond draw. On the turn I'm really not at all worried about UTG but the minraise with me still to act after i led out on the flop has me concerned. Is this the time for me to fold or JAM?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($222.20)
UTG ($75.80)
MP ($136.55)
CO ($224.25)
Button ($96.50)
SB ($113.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Button raises to $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($15.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9, Button calls $9.

Turn: ($42.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $20, Button raises to $40, Hero ???

Nick Royale · #2 09-09-2007, 07:56 PM

Your flop bet is too small. Bet/call the turn.

bung · #3 09-09-2007, 07:56 PM

*grunch*

shove and get value from btn's entire raising range (two pair, tp) and UTG's draw. Btn doesn't only have JT here.

criminaldave · #4 09-09-2007, 08:07 PM

JT is a concern but against this guy I'm more worried about KK, especially after the call on the flop.

My problems always seem to be on the turn and I'm fed up spewing unnecessarily and missing value in spots like this.

HoldEmNewby · #5 09-09-2007, 08:37 PM

out of curiosity: why did you check the turn after leading the flop?

PartysOver · #6 09-09-2007, 08:42 PM

based on your read of button i think i like c/r flop better (he's c-betting this like every time)

as played:
i like a $14 donk>>$6 donk>>>>>$9 donk
and lead turn for $25-30

Melchiades · #7 09-09-2007, 08:48 PM

What is horrible about this board? I go nuts here. Lots more combos of KQ than KK. Arr in please. Folding would be a crime.

dotbum · #8 09-10-2007, 07:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
His preflop raise is any pair, any broadway or some suited/unsuited connectors.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems more reasonable. Is there a reason that you feel his isolation range would be so tight on the button?

Why do you think he raises up QQ/99 on that flop, but not AA/KK?

On the turn, maybe he's a good enough hand reader to know that he can offer these odds with JT or a bigger set because you never lead diamonds, and the K just helped UTG so he's way ahead of 2 pair or a random floated King? We'd also have to assume he's not worried about extracting value with all those scare cards to come on the river.

Or is it that he knows his KQ is in good shape against UTG and you've given up on the hand?

Point being, I think his range is a lot wider than you think. If he turned JT face up, you couldn't fold to this bet, unless you know UTG is 3betting, and I don't like putting in ~60% eff. stacks and folding, plus lots of scary rivers = shove?

rockusteady · #9 09-10-2007, 08:55 AM

villain has KK almost never. what 'solid' player is calling a flop bet with an OP on that board against 2 players? His range is pretty much left to QQ/99/ KQ/ maybe TJ. 99 and QQ are less likely because msot players want to jam that pot on a board like that with a set and hope that you stack yourself with AQ.They are possible, but i discount how often you see them.

so that leaves KQ and TJ. You are crushing KQ and and have 10 outs againts JT.
You also through in the possibility that villain shows up with K9/complete air occasionally and that makes this play an easy shove.

Melchiades · #10 09-10-2007, 12:18 PM

How do you like to play KK here on the flop? Raise/calling? Thats good in aggro games, but I'm guessing raise/calling OP's donk here means villain is flipping or crushed with his KK.