15/30 I think I misplayed multiple streets

[XXsooted]

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $15/$30
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Should I just muck top set on a low flop?

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6BB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (14BB, 4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>

Should I be more afraid of TJ? Not sure what exactly I'm hoping to call me either...

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I just muck top set on a low flop?

[/ QUOTE ]XXsooted -Absolutely not!!

Raise UTG+1's flop bet!!

You have flopped a set of queens (top set). You have the current nuts, but unless the board pairs, the high nuts on the river will likely be a flush or straight.

And the board is more likely not to pair than to pair.

Therefore, you need to do as much as you can to protect your set of queens. You need to knock out JTXY hands and the such - hands that might bite you on the river.

You can't do anything about good flush draws, but you might be able to knock out back-door straight draws and bad flush draws. (You can't do anything about good low draws from hands that might end making a straight either).

But you need to protect your hand if that is at all possible - and you need to immediately protect your hand. You cannot wait until the turn is a nine, because then you can't get rid of JTXY, especially with hearts or diamonds.

Meanwhile, some of the losing low draws should contribute.

It's a blunder to merely call this flop bet - and there is no way to correct once you have made that error. (Sorry, but you asked, and I'm giving it to you straight).

Buzz

[SparkMan]

Your hand plays just as well post flop vs 5 opponents as one. Just calling the flop and raising a safe turn is acceptable. River bet seems OK, UTG+1 may have an underset.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand plays just as well post flop vs 5 opponents as one. Just calling the flop and raising a safe turn is acceptable. River bet seems OK, UTG+1 may have an underset.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand sucks against one opponent.

Also, raising the flop is standard, i misread the OP, b/c there's too many turn cards you can't raise, so it's more +EV to raise the flop.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand plays just as well post flop vs 5 opponents as one.

[/ QUOTE ]SparkMan - The hand will improve roughly 35% and not improve roughly 65%. When it does improve, it's highly likely to win and is going to win at about the same frequency regardless of the number of opponents. But with more opponents, someone is more likely to actually make low when low becomes possible. Thus the hand scoops less with five opponents when it improves. It wins about the same, percentage wise, but it scoops about half as often when it improves with five opponents, as compared to one.

It's when the hand doesn't improve that there is a big difference between five opponents and one.

When the hand doesn't improve with one opponent, it wins about 75%. When the hand doesn't improve with five opponents, it only wins about 21%. And you cannot tell with certitude whether an opponent betting is betting a nut low or a high. It's hard to fold the top set on the river under these circumstances, and often is wrong to do so.

If the board pairs, the more "customers" the merrier. But if the board doesn't pair, Hero should definitely prefer fewer opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
Just calling the flop and raising a safe turn is acceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm not sure how you're coming to this conclusion. I think it's much better to make it two bets to everybody yet to act (aside from UTG+1). If everybody had already put in one bet, then raising would not serve to limit the field, and it would be a different story.

But here there is the opportunity to limit the field and protect Hero's set, just in case the board doesn't pair. (It doesn't pair roughly two times for every time it does pair).

[ QUOTE ]
River bet seems OK,

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. [ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 may have an underset.

[/ QUOTE ]Also yes. (But that's not the only reason to bet this river).

Buzz

[Truthiness24]

My gut tells me to bet the flop, and after reading great analysis I still think so. I like being able to better define my opponents' hands here.

You can't fear someone accidentally playing JT to the end IMO. I like the line otherwise.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
My gut tells me to bet the flop,..... I like being able to better define my opponents' hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]Truthiness - Yes.

If nobody had bet, Hero should definitely bet.

In the situation presented in this thread, the player to Hero's immediate right has already bet and Hero should definitely raise.

[ QUOTE ]
You can't fear someone accidentally playing JT to the end IMO. I like the line otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]I completely agree.
(1) You shouldn't "fear" anyone playing a particular two cards.
(2) You should, however, guard against various possibilities if you see the opportunity to do so. Here Hero has been presented with the opportunity to do so.
(3) I never meant to imply that Hero should bet so as to protect against the possibility that an opponent specifically held jack-ten. That's only one of many, many various possibilities an opponent might hold that might end up endangering Hero's flopped but unimproved set of queens. I only mentioned jack-ten because that possibility, as things turned out, became the rightful concern of XXsooted (the opening poster).

After this flop a pushing situation arises for Hero. (He should want as few opponents as possible).

In my humble opinion, the great majority of voluntarily playable starting hands in limit Omaha-8 are pulling hands. (You want as many opponents as possible).

You can make a good case for raising before the flop with this hand (pushing) and you also can make a good (I think better) case for not raising before the flop with this hand (pulling). But whether this starting hand is more of a pulling or pushing hand before the flop is not the critical issue here.

After the flop, things often change. A hand that was a pulling hand can become a pushing hand. And vice versa. Whatever this hand was before the flop, it is a pushing hand immediately after this particular flop.

Buzz

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $15/$30
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Should I just muck top set on a low flop?

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6BB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (14BB, 4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>

Should I be more afraid of TJ? Not sure what exactly I'm hoping to call me either...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is perfect.

love the way you played this hand.

and JT will usually lead out on the river.

btw, if you're even considering mucking top set on that flop, dont play the hand preflop.

as played, well played.


-Tex

[cero_z]

Hey,

I mostly agree with Buzz. You usually would not raise the flop with just top set, but here, it's an unraised pot and the bettor is to your immediate right. You have a chance to knock out gutshot straight draws that are bad low draws, and non-nut flush draws in the hands of decent players. If you are sure that nobody would fold any flush draw to your double flop bet, then waiting for the turn to raise is the only feasible play.

I don't agree that you should focus on knocking out JT; there's no real likelihood of JT being present; it has no draw on the flop (and if it did it would be a terrible one, given the 2 lows on board), and you hold a T. I would often play just as you did throughout the hand, and betting the river is mandatory.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree that you should focus on knocking out JT; there's no real likelihood of JT being present; it has no draw on the flop (and if it did it would be a terrible one, given the 2 lows on board), and you hold a T. I would often play just as you did throughout the hand, and betting the river is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]Cero - I agree. Maybe I should not have mentioned jack-ten. I wasn't really thinking of protecting this top set specifically against jack-ten, but rather against lots of various possible two card combos that might be in hands that would get played for one bet, but not for two.

I'd make it a double bet so as to make it too expensive for an opponent with only mediocre high chances to draw out and beat me. (How to possibly get rid of a mediocre flush draw would be of more concern than how to get rid of jack-ten-X-Y).

As Tex mentioned, Hero has the opportunity to make it a double bet here because the player immediately to his right has just made it a single bet. If Hero were in last position and the player in first position bet and got called (or not called) by various intervening players, it would be a different situation.

Getting more money into the pot is not the issue. Protecting the top set is.

I only singled out jack-ten because as things turned out, that became a concern of XXsooted. I probably wouldn't even have thought about jack-ten after this flop. After the turn jack-ten comes into play, but then it's too late, as it would also be with other threats after various other turn cards.

Buzz