100NL: I Am So Confused

Kos13 · #1 09-07-2007, 09:21 PM

SB is a 12/4 set-mining reg (I think he plays full time). He's not aggro enough to be a great player, but he certainly knows what he's doing and is one of the better players at the level. We've played thousands of hands together...he tends to call me down a little light because I'm pretty aggro. He's check-raised me a couple times recently, but I never had a hand, so I never got to see his cards.

C-bet was supposed to be $9, but I don't think it really matters the way this hand played out. I just can't put him on a hand here. TT makes sense, but would he really overbet shove the turn since he knows I can fold an overpair? I'm just completely confused. Should I call or fold?

UB NLHE - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players

Hero ($113.30)
MP3 ($55.20)
CO ($106.50)
Button ($107.65)
SB ($22.60)
BB ($130.15)
UTG ($184)
UTG+1 ($294.50)
MP1 ($99)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, BB calls $3, UTG+1 calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, BB raises to $21, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $13.

Turn: ($54.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $105.15 (All-In), HERO is confused

Keyser112 · #2 09-07-2007, 09:38 PM

go the weak route and just fold.

SABR42 · #3 09-07-2007, 09:52 PM

How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

Kos13 · #4 09-07-2007, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

[/ QUOTE ]

He views me as very TAGish; I'm running ~13.5/9 lately. I raise a lot (at least compared to most players at the level), I c-bet a lot, but I can fold a big hand, and he knows this. He's borderline nitty, but his game isn't just set-or-fold...he doesn't really have multiple speeds, but he isn't a total nitfish. What confuses me is that no hand fits his line. If he has...

QQ: he knows the only hand that calls him has him beat
KK: same as QQ...I'm never calling this with queens, so KK is never good if he's called
AA: possible but highly, highly unlikely
TT: why would he overbet when he knows I can fold an overpair?
JJ: same as TT, and I don't think he'd raise the flop anyway
8-x: possible, but he's so nitty that it would have to be 98s, and even that is very questionable

JulioYalil · #5 09-07-2007, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
QQ: he knows the only hand that calls him has him beat
KK: same as QQ...I'm never calling this with queens, so KK is never good if he's called
AA: possible but highly, highly unlikely
TT: why would he overbet when he knows I can fold an overpair?
JJ: same as TT, and I don't think he'd raise the flop anyway
8-x: possible, but he's so nitty that it would have to be 98s, and even that is very questionable

[/ QUOTE ]

AA: he would have to have the only other two aces left. plus he didn't reraise preflop?

KK or QQ: he didn't reraise preflop? (that argues in favor of him/her not havin them)... i think s/he doesn't put u on AA or KK b/c u prolly would've reraised his/er reraise on the flop w/ those 2 hands. u said urself it's hard to put him/er on 8x so why not reraise him back on the flop before that hand gets nastier like it did on the turn. (this, on the other hand makes it very possible for him to have them)

JJ or TT: i think u r about right on what u wrote except that it is very possible for villain to reraise here w/ JJ to find out where s/he's at. one can lose a lot of money unnecessarily against an overpair on the next street if it's a blank. if villain is a solid player a reraise here w/ JJ is not out of line.

8x: u should also throw in 87 suited if u r sayin 98 suited is possible. also, for ur hand range calculations u should throw in 88 (altho highly unlikely b/c of the odds of floppin quads and b/c it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to play that strongly knowin u'll fold overpairs and that if u have a full house s/he's gettin ur money on the river anyways).

anyways... u have a complete range of hands for villain. do the math and see if the 1.5:1 u r gettin on ur money is good enough for a call.

JulioYalil · #6 09-07-2007, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

[/ QUOTE ]

op did write the person knows he'll fold an overpair.

overall i'd say this is usually a fold. but knowin villain knows we'll fold an overpair here makes me wanna call more times than not b/c that will take away many hands that beat us from his range. it just doesn't make any sense to scare u away w/ such a strong hand like a full house.

Berge20 · #7 09-07-2007, 10:03 PM

Have you ever seen him do this overbet move?

Kos13 · #8 09-07-2007, 10:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever seen him do this overbet move?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not against me. He's done it against bad players with "vulnerable" hands (made up example: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs. a 30/7 on a J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] board). However, if we assume he can't have AA, a shove with QQ/KK is basically a bluff since he's never ahead when I call. At the same time, shoving with a set means he doesn't get any value. So...I'm lost.

Berge20 · #9 09-07-2007, 10:20 PM

I'll admit to being equally confused given the description.

Admittedly, I love to CR this type of paired flop against a TAG PFR who is on the agressive side. However, if I had an trips or better here I can't see why on earth I'd move AI like that--the only time I'd do it would be on a bluff and the only two bluffing hands I'd likely have that I really would want to move you off, but don't totally mind a call are 99 or 77 (less likely).

JulioYalil · #10 09-07-2007, 09:56 PM

this doesn't seem that hard of a decision to make. u wrote u've played thousands of hands w/ this player so u should know him/her well by now. there is $159 in the pot ($12 preflop & $42 on the flop plus the $105 all in on turn) and u need to call $105. u r gettin 1.5:1 on ur money which means u need to win the hand more than 1 out of every 2.5 times or over 40% of the time to make the call profitable. just pick a hand range for this person (since u r supposed to know him/her that well) and measure ur hand against his range.

if u don't know how to do this then u def have a lot to learn yet. u could start by reading an article phil galfond (omgclayaiken) wrote not so long ago for bluff mag about hand ranges and what he called "g-bucks". i believe it's the simplest way i've ever read that concept explained.
link to article