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#1
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Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
Live tournament,$100 buy-in. We are down to the final 8,top 7 pays,and play has tightened up considerably since we got close to the money.No-one seems to want to risk their stack with marginal hands,so every preflop raise has to be taken seriously,I have not seen anyone blatantly steal at the FT so far.
Blinds are 1500/3k,no ante. MP ,young kid,prob the most active player left,pretty LAG earlier in tourney,but like everyone else he's tightened up now. LP ,older woman,calling station,saw plenty of flops but seemed to c/f if she missed completely,but would pay you off bigtime if she got a part of it. Stacksizes, MP 40k LP 50k Hero(SB) 70k BB 20k Rest of the table are in the 30k range. MP minraises to 6k, LP calls. I'm SB w A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I was strongly considering raising here,but I'm very unsure where they are at. LP worries me the most,if she has a pair,she may or may not fold to a shove,I feel certain she will call a 3-4 bet. I felt superconfident I was the best player at the table,so I wasn't sure that I wanted to risk most of my stack coinflipping at this stage.Also,no reason MP couldn't have a strong hand here.....soooo I decide to just call. Then of course BB shoves,and both MP and LP calls.I'm left with same question,should I push?? Right now I'm not too worried about OR,pretty sure he shoves a big hand here,LP different story.Would she isolate with hands like AK or a big pair? Probably not,then again,that doesn't mean she's got that,she could easily have any two facecards. As it is live,it is all pretty read dependent,I felt everyone here had good hands and that my FE wasn't that great.That combined with the fact that I knew I could def steal blinds to keep my stack at a decent level made me call.In hindsight though I'm wondering if my play here is just too weak. |
#2
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
With that many players and the way you describe the table, it sounds like you're up against at least one pair and at least one ace. I think your hand doesn't do well against those hands hot-cold. I think it's a -$EV play.
Edit: If you're up against another A and 2 smaller pairs, you're 26% to win (if your A is bigger, 16% if he has AK): Hand 0: 26.135% 24.98% 01.16% 271278 12545.00 { AcQd } Hand 1: 21.282% 20.13% 01.16% 218578 12545.00 { AsJs } Hand 2: 36.137% 36.09% 00.05% 391948 503.00 { 9h9s } Hand 3: 16.447% 16.40% 00.05% 178108 503.00 { 7c7d } If you're up against two Ax hands and a pair, you're 23% if your A is bigger, 17% if it's smaller: Hand 0: 17.493% 16.99% 00.50% 184510 5462.83 { AcQd } Hand 1: 32.054% 31.55% 00.50% 342641 5462.83 { AsKs } Hand 2: 15.083% 14.58% 00.50% 158337 5462.83 { AdJc } Hand 3: 35.371% 35.29% 00.08% 383274 857.50 { 7c7d } |
#3
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
This is preflop play.
You can lay this down for the reasons stated above...your hand doesn't play well in a multiway pot. Fold...easy. |
#4
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
I would've shoved...as played I fold.
I've never played a live tourney so I am less familiar with tendecies...but is there any chance MP and LP fold to a shove because they're that scared to bubble? I know it would be ridiculous of them to fold now but live play can be bad right? |
#5
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
I'll fold here as there is already 3 players seeing the flop, you don't want someone to turn over AK... Maybe the BB has a real Monster???
Let them knock each other out and move up ITM... If they are playing really tight, start playing LAG...change gears constantly... |
#6
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
No, at this point, you should not push.
MP's range is probably strong, you are right: 88+; AJo+; KQs. LP's range is bigger. You're probably going to get them to fold 60-70% of the time (whereas most of my concern comes from FE against MP, not LP). I think that the other 30-40% you are always behind and a good percent of that time WB. So the play here doesn't seem +EV. That, and as you said, there are no antes and you feel you have a decided edge over the table. Calling here doesn't get you much value post flop, I don't feel. So, I like folding here. With antes, a different read, or a period where the LAG is actually playing LAGGY, you could assign a bigger range and push. |
#7
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
[ QUOTE ]
No, at this point, you should not push. MP's range is probably strong, you are right: 88+; AJo+; KQs. LP's range is bigger. You're probably going to get them to fold 60-70% of the time (whereas most of my concern comes from FE against MP, not LP). I think that the other 30-40% you are always behind and a good percent of that time WB. So the play here doesn't seem +EV. That, and as you said, there are no antes and you feel you have a decided edge over the table. Calling here doesn't get you much value post flop, I don't feel. So, I like folding here. With antes, a different read, or a period where the LAG is actually playing LAGGY, you could assign a bigger range and push. [/ QUOTE ] we are only 45/55 dogs to this range, and with all the dead money in the pot, this has to be very +cEV and $EV. i have no idea how to do the calculations, but i know for damn sure, if they will fold "60-70% of the time", then we are damn good and should always be making this play, since 60% of the time we'll be making t16,500k, and the other 40% we'll be flipping for a HUUUGE stack. edit: after rereading the OP, i realize you're talking about after the BB pushes and mp/lp call. i thought we were still talking baout OPs initial PF decision |
#8
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
I'd definately re raise / squeeze pf, stacks and situation is pretty good for it, as played it's either push or fold I think fold is > push as it's likely to get 4 way and your hand value shrinks somewhat, though I doubt MP or LP has AK.
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#9
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
i like a shove over the minraise. if the table is as timid as you say, then they probably don't want to gamble here after you shove and the BB calls.
As played, with BB shoving and the other two calling, i think you can fold and let them try to take the BB out. |
#10
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Re: Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No, at this point, you should not push. MP's range is probably strong, you are right: 88+; AJo+; KQs. LP's range is bigger. You're probably going to get them to fold 60-70% of the time (whereas most of my concern comes from FE against MP, not LP). I think that the other 30-40% you are always behind and a good percent of that time WB. So the play here doesn't seem +EV. That, and as you said, there are no antes and you feel you have a decided edge over the table. Calling here doesn't get you much value post flop, I don't feel. So, I like folding here. With antes, a different read, or a period where the LAG is actually playing LAGGY, you could assign a bigger range and push. [/ QUOTE ] we are only 45/55 dogs to this range, and with all the dead money in the pot, this has to be very +cEV and $EV. i have no idea how to do the calculations, but i know for damn sure, if they will fold "60-70% of the time", then we are damn good and should always be making this play, since 60% of the time we'll be making t16,500k, and the other 40% we'll be flipping for a HUUUGE stack. edit: after rereading the OP, i realize you're talking about after the BB pushes and mp/lp call. i thought we were still talking baout OPs initial PF decision [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough, but we are not flipping the other 40% of the time. A good chunk of the time, we are WB. And, I'm not really concerned about the old lady - if my concern was with the old lady, then I'm not concerned and I don't even reply to this post. I'm concerned about MP - I know 16.5K is in the pot and we get that a good chunk of the time. But, with no antes and MP's small raise, I'm assigning a range to him which makes a big dog whenever we calls (save for JJ). Now, if someone can do the math for me and show me it's +EV when he calls with AK; JJ+ (which, IMO, constitutes about half of his range here), then I'm on board with ERC. But, I don't think that it's as easy a squeeze as it looks. I could be wrong, and for some nitty reason, don't mind a fold. Barry |
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