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Hedgie43\'s Rugby World Cup Picks
Friday
Argentina +11.5 vs. France Risk 1u to win 1u Argentina has won 4 of the last 5 encounters between the two countries and the one match they lost was by 1 point. This includes the only match France has ever lost in Marseille. Argentina has a few injury worries, but their 3 best players (F Contepomi, Pichot and Juan Martin Hernandez) are healthy and the replacements for the injured players have plenty of international experience. However, the injuries are the only reason this is not a multi-unit play. The moneyline of +425 is also good value. Saturday New Zealand -37.5 vs. Italy Risk 1.1u to win 1u This will probably be NZ's toughest match of the pool stages as Scotland have stated they will be playing a "B" side against NZ so that they are fully rested for their crucial match against Italy. Italy will be playing their first team but will have extreme difficulty going up against an equally good pack and a devastating backline. NZ will be looking to make a statement in this game and should win by about 50. Sunday Canada +29.5 vs. Wales Risk 1.1u to win 1u Canada always plays well against Wales and will really look to take the Welsh on physically. They will keep the ball tight and try to keep the game low scoring. Canada had a very successful summer with a huge win over the US and a competitive performance against New Zealand. Their goal in this RWC is the quarterfinals so they will be targeting this game. Ireland -62.5 vs. Namibia Risk 1.1u to win 1u Ireland will likely score 100 against Namibia. The Irish players performed poorly in their warmup matches and will be looking to not only cement their places for key matches but also to prove a point. Namibia is terrible and is coming off of a 105-13 loss to South Africa. It also looks like they have lost one of their few professional players in Skipper Badenhorst. A 100 point loss would not be surprising here. |
#2
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Re: Hedgie43\'s Rugby World Cup Picks
Not that anyone else cares but the NZ-Italy game has moved to 41.5.
Also, the over/under for the Argentina/France match has been posted and it's 41.5. I like the over (risking 1.1u to win 1u). The last few games between France and Argentina are as follows: 53 38 65 15 55 Argentina has named an attacking lineup with Hernandez at 10 and Contepomi at 12 (rather than Todeschini at 10) so the game should be more high scoring than normal. Only thing to counteract that could be opening game jitters, but I still like the over. |
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Re: Hedgie43\'s Rugby World Cup Picks
I like all except the Argentina pick. France have been in scintillating form of late and playing this at home in front of an eager crowd. I think the line is pretty much spot on, no vig and I take France -11.5.
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#4
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Re: Hedgie43\'s Rugby World Cup Picks
Since I have no clue about rugby I thought I'd ask if there's value in a middle.
USA +55 -111 England -51.5 -104? |
#5
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Re: Hedgie43\'s Rugby World Cup Picks
NZ Tab (http://www.tab.co.nz/sport/) has what they call winning margin spread and lists England winning by 50-56 at +450 but they are taking a ton of vig.
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#6
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Re: Hedgie43\'s Rugby World Cup Picks
Argentina wins 17-12 after leading 17-9 at halftime. Poor kicking and some missed opportunities lead to the over not covering but no worries.
Sides: 1-0 +1.0u Totals: 0-1 -1.1u |
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