Too many football/baseball threads: NBA HYPOTHETICAL TIME

[Green Kool Aid]

I will explain more, just wanted to know what you guys thought was a better base to build a team around:

[TheRedRocket]

it's really tough because of durant/oden most likely being the best player out of all four but I went with Jefferson & #5 because it gives a shot of having 2 good to great players to build around

[Green Kool Aid]

[ QUOTE ]
it's really tough because of durant/oden most likely being the best player out of all four but I went with Jefferson & #5 because it gives a shot of having 2 good to great players to build around

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think that Jeff Green is gonna be great? I project him as a Danny Granger type player, maybe maxing out as a versatile 16 points, 5 rebound, 2 assist type player.

The thought was this...

The number 1 pick (as an asset) >> Jefferson, and on the flip side, Perkins would not have slipped out of the lottery had he been projected into the draft. I think the two duos are pretty similar in value.

[TheRedRocket]

well I thought it was anyone player still available with the #5 pick not just jeff green but still now I am changing my mind because of not wanting to lose out on Durant who is projected to be much much better than anyone else in the scenario.

[Green Kool Aid]

[ QUOTE ]
well I thought it was anyone player still available with the #5 pick not just jeff green but still now I am changing my mind because of not wanting to lose out on Durant who is projected to be much much better than anyone else in the scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

jeff green or yi or corey brewer or brandan wright or joakim noah. i don't see any of those guys being great.

[FlyWf]

You only get to start 5 players at a time, and only one can have the ball. I'm a massive Jefferson fan, but he's not on Oden's level.

[Green Kool Aid]

My point was that if Perk and the number 1 have more value,

Instead of trading

Delonte West
Wally Sczcerbiak
5th pick
Al Jefferson
Ryan Gomes
Gerald Green
Sebastian Telfair
Theo Ratliff
Two future picks

for

Kevin Garnett
Ray Allen

The Celtics traded

Delonte West
Wally Sczcerbiak
1st pick
Kendrick Perkins
Ryan Gomes
Gerald Green
Sebastian Telfair
Theo Ratliff
Two future picks

for

Kevin Garnett
Ray Allen

[vixticator]

I'd go with #1 pick in a totally random draft year by a lot. Al Jefferson is probably not an all-time great player. With the first pick you have the chance to really become a dynasty, or have more high picks.

[kidcolin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go with #1 pick in a totally random draft year by a lot. Al Jefferson is probably not an all-time great player. With the first pick you have the chance to really become a dynasty, or have more high picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm.. this might be close. I wouldn't say "by a lot".

Let's take a look at the top of the draft for the last 10 years. I'm going to list the first pick, and guys near the top who were potential top picks (i.e. teams screw up).

'07 - Oden, Durant
'06 - Bargnani, Aldridge
'05 - Bogut, Deron, Paul (I have a hard time listing Deron and Paul, because I don't know how many teams would "blow" the first pick on them)
'04 - Dwight Howard
'03 - LBJ
'02 - Yao
'01 - Kwame, Pau
'00 - K-Mart (worst. draft. ever)
'99 - Brand
'98 - Kandi, Bibby, Vince
'97 - Timmah

Having the first pick in the '97, '02, '03, and '07 is hands down better than having Jefferson. '04 is closer, and '99 is a little closer than that. The rest I take Al.

In this particular draft, #1 + Kendrick has more value. But it could be close. Al's only 22, btw.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm.. this might be close. I wouldn't say "by a lot".

[/ QUOTE ]Right, there is a good chance you will still end up a terrible team and back to lotto for years. If at least 20% chance of hitting an absolute monster in draft I would have to go with it. Some players instantly restore, or grant, your franchise status. Not counting that you still end up with a quality, all-star player a reasonable amount of the time at level of a Jefferson or higher. Probably more than half or close. When you busto and grab a Kwame or whatever, well, your screwed, but picking at top you likely were to begin with and could get another shot soon--Orlando is huge luckbox for example.