Small straight vs possible bigger straight ?

villain is 30/2/0.9 over 70 hands. I`m 16/8/2.4.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($57.40)
BB ($10.75)
UTG ($66.25)
MP ($24.25)
Hero ($70.20)
Button ($25.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, BB folds, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($7.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.5</font>, MP calls $7.50.

River: ($22.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $13.25 (All-In)</font>

Hero ??

I think he either had JT or T7 here. If he would have a set he would have reraised my flop bet IMO.

[shoxbb6]

Preflop is meh, otherwise this is standard.

[Spurious]

I think it is standard all the way.
The odds you get on the river are too good to fold.

[orig!naL]

If you agree villain probably raises a flopped set, then the only holding he could have that we beat is 2 pair or a busted draw. 0.9 AF? I really think this is JT or a busted flush draw. Given his PFR %, this could possibly be JJ, but I reaaaaally doubt it.

Top 2% looks like: AA-QQ + AK or AA-JJ

If we take him off all of those holdings, what is he sticking around on this flop for with 0.9 AF?

JT = yes
flush draw = yes
89 = yes (again doubtful, I think he bets out on the flop or shoves to your reraise)
QJ = he probably folds on the flop, but there is a slight chance he called with the gutshot
TT = yes (but would he check it on the flop? I doubt it)

Board: 8h 9h Qs Jc 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.140% 58.14% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 41.860% 41.86% 00.00% 18 0.00 { TT, 8c8d, 8c8s, 8d8s, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, QJs, JTs, 98s, 6h5h, QJo, JTo, 98o }

fire away! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] For some reason I actually thought this would be a bad call, but hey look at that.

[Spurious]

I think he wouldnt laydown QJ on the flop.

I think we all agree that it is pretty much standard.
But please post the results, i am curious now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Brian O'Nolan]

If you think this is an automatic raise pf you need to take another look at stack sizes and your game. Previous limper has 50 BB's as does button. Against most villains as described overlimping is fine and probably optimal here. I call river.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think this is an automatic raise pf you need to take another look at stack sizes and your game. Previous limper has 50 BB's as does button. Against most villains as described overlimping is fine and probably optimal here. I call river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Someone with 50bbs who limps isn't good, you can rape them if they call by cbetting nearly 100% of the time. In this specific hand, raising is still better than limping along.

[Kasane]

Raising limpers is optimal if they have 100bbs though, and limping behind isn't -EV, it's just not as positive -- at some point they cross, and raising shorty limpers becomes sub-optimal and a limp behind becomes better. Even flat out folding could be better depending on other table dynamics.

It's a very good question at where the graphs on these would cross, where they'd be equal in positive expectation. My guess is somewhere in the 25-40bb range (flop bet has got to have some fold equity, which means villain needs significant money to lose on the turn, among other factors), so not raising limpers with hands like these isn't bad at all.

Push it the other way, if villain had 10bb and limps, we're not raising -- we're folding.

[Brian O'Nolan]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone with 50bbs who limps isn't good, you can rape them if they call by cbetting nearly 100% of the time. In this specific hand, raising is still better than limping along.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are right, a 50 bb limper is probably not good. But they will tend to have stationy tendencies and cbetting 100% of flops is lighting $ on fire. If it was a 12/6 limper would you autoraise pf and auto cbet? Try to think a little beyond "villain = bad and I will raise any playable hand and cbet any flop regardless of texture and I win the monies"