Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in NLTRN

[mmix85]

a row

In a HU sit and go what range do you guys call with if the opponent has moved all in 4 hands in a row? How much of an edge do you wait for if hes presumably shoving any two cards? However, dont assume he will continue shoving any 2 for the whole match, but he might. Sorry if this question has already been answered before, im new posting here.

[jay_shark]

His range is pretty much any two cards . My intuition tells me you should call with something in the top 10% of all hands and probably closer to the top 15% of all hands .

Our equity if we call with the top 10 % of all hands is approximately :

On average you'll lose 5 bb's and 4 sb's or 5 sb's 4 bb's and call on the tenth hand .

You'll be down to 1360 or 1370 depending on which position you start from and call on the 10th hand with an average equity of 67.8% .

1370*2*0.678 = 1857.72 or 1360*2*0.678 = 1844.16

If you employ this strategy your equity should be just under 1857.72/3000=61.9%

If you call with any hand in the top 20% then your equity should be :

1500-2*(10+20) = 1440 which means you'll lose the blinds on average 4 times before you call .

1440*2*0.6345=1827.36 since the top 20% of all hands wins 63.45% of the time . Notice that this number is less than your equity for calling with the top 10 % . So your optimal calling range must be less than the top 20 % of all hands .

I'm guessing something in between 10 and 20 .

[TNixon]

I believe K8 is the cutoff hand for being profitable against any 2.

Can't remember if it's supposed to be suited or not though. Offsuit, I think. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, you can call tighter than that to reduce your variance, and win more often when you do call/push, but doing so will also reduce your overall EV (but probably not by a ton).

Also, it's worth considering that most people who are willing to push with any 2 are not necessarily willing to *call* a push with any 2.

[jay_shark]

Ok so I found a range that I think is optimal or very close to optimal . Keep in mind that your calling requirements do change with each and every chip you lose .

Call with the following which is approximately the top 14 % of all hands :

A-10+ , K-J+ , Q-J ,A-8S+ , K-9S+ , Q-10S, + 77+ . Your equity for this game should be close to 65% .

[mmix85]

Thanks for the math, thats what I was looking for. How much do you think one should loosen up the calling range if you think if their is a possibility(say 50%) that the opponent might stop pushing every hand at some point in the match.

[jay_shark]

Say he tells you that he will push all in for 10 hands only and play normally the rest .

In order to give an idea of what to call with , you have to estimate the chances that you would win when you're down 1.5*5 = 7.5 BB's . If you guess that you should win 58% of the time , then this means you should call with any hand that has an equity > 58% .