PLO100 - Assessing whether its a bare ace bluff??

[Elrazor]

Villan is running 69/8/1.61 but has displayed some knowledge of the game - obviously my hand is playable, but what about the turn? if he has the bare ace then obviously a call is better, but if he dosent i could end up paying him on the river when drawing dead - how is it best to play these spots??


Cryptologic
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $87.15
UTG+1: $25.80
CO: $83.50
Button: $141.35
SB: $412.94
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($12, 6 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $12</font>, BB folds, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $36</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero???</font>

[RoundTower]

fold?

[cmyr]

I'd feel way better popping the flop then I would calling down the whole way. You need a good read here and preferably a hand full of spades. Also if he does have the nuts right now you have no implied odds.

[Kala1928]

id rather doublefloat this with air than topset because that way its a lot more likely the board will pair.

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
id rather doublefloat this with air than topset because that way its 4.55% more likely the board will pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[wazz]

[ QUOTE ]
id rather doublefloat this with air than topset because that way its a lot more likely the board will pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just so goddamned silly, you actually do this?

[cmyr]

it's sort of like how you'd rather call bets down with the naked ace because it's more likely that the flush draw will get there.

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold flop... he's potting it into 6 players and there are 3 to act behind you... you're never ahead here and may get raised off your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

is it not slightly suspicious that hes potting straight out fo the blinds? if he had called UTG with his hand then for sure he had a suited ace a good deal of the time, but out of the blinds? i think its about 50/50 that his Ace is suited maybe less.

anyway as the hand played out i repotted and he folded, but therefore this means if i had called the turn he would have fired a 3rd barrel im sure on the river and i win another bet.

i decided to do some maths on the hand to maybe find an optimum way of playing this situation (although im not to hot on maths so feel free to correct any errors ive made in my calcs) ive done 2 samples, one where i think its 50/50 he has a bare ace, the second where its 70/30, which is kind of where my gut was telling me i was

<u>repotting</u>

$72*50%=+$36
$145*50%=-$72-(145/*3.4-1 to make FH)$42=-$30

Net gain $6

$72*70%=+$50
$145*30%=-$43-$42=-$1

Net gain +$49

<u>Calling</u>

$145*50%=+$72
$145*50%+-$72

net gain $0

$145*70%=+$101.5
$145*30%=-$43.5

Net gain +$68

all in all although calling is better the more you are sure he has a bare ace, i tend to prefer repotting as it gives you the scope to improve to win a showdown, and also you have no guarentee villan is going to fire on the river, he may well give up. it also shows that you are not making a serious mistake repopping if you think its 50/50

[pete fabrizio]

i wouldn't be so sure he will bet the river as well. he may figure you like your hand at that point. also you don't seem to be accounting for the times he has smaller flushes.

[cts]

I think calling down all the way is better than raising -- no one ever full pot bet/folds flushes, they're either usually bluffing or they have the 3 high flush that they are taking to the felt no matter how much $ is behind.