Ichiro and a hypothetical question for stats/Sabermetrics folks

[ArcticKnight]

Hello

It has been said by a few people who have watched Ichro in batting practice (and it has been said by Ichiro himself) that he could increase his HR and other power numbers at the expense of his BA if he wanted to. Whether this is a true assumption or not is not the focus of this post, but let's play along as if it was true.

Currently his careers numbers are

.333BA
.379OBP
.437SLG
.816OPS
average of about 10HR and 60 RBI per year.

Suppose you were a mananger and could move him to the 4th spot in the line-up, where it was a certainty his average would be .285 over 5 years.

What kind of numbers would Ichiro need to put up in the key power areas to make this a +EV move for the team. We can assume his defence would remain unchanged, but his stolen bases and runs scored would decline from moving out of the lead off position.

I am asking this question not to promote the idea of moving Ichiro, but to try and gain a genuine understanding of what kind of power numbers are required to offet a consistently high BA and speed (but low production). I assume there must be a point where it would be plus EV, but I'm just not sure where that is.

For example, would it be worth moving Ichiro for these numbers?
.285BA (the given)
.340OBP
.485SLG
.880OPS
ave 20Hrs and 95RBI

If not, what numbers then?

[THAY3R]

.340OBP
.485SLG
.880OPS

?

[ArcticKnight]

[ QUOTE ]
.340OBP
.485SLG
.880OPS

?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm braindead

.360OBP
.520SLG
.880OPS

[THAY3R]

Yes, 80 points of slugging is worth more than 20 points of OBP.

[DesertCat]

How can ichiro lose 48 points of BA, but less than that in OBP? Swinging harder doesn't make you walk more. If Ichiro hits .285, his OBP is below .330 and he needs huge power numbers to make up for it. The whole question is absurd since with ichiro baserunning skills you need him on base as much as possible.

[NT!]

[ QUOTE ]
How can ichiro lose 48 points of BA, but less than that in OBP?

[/ QUOTE ]

guys with a higher SLG are more likely to get walked / pitched around because you don't want to give up an XBH, obv.

[ QUOTE ]
The whole question is absurd since with ichiro baserunning skills you need him on base as much as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[mo42nyy]

does your barely +ev for his steals account for the fact that him on base makes the pitcher work a lot harder and makes the abs easier for the guys behind him?

[ArcticKnight]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole question is absurd since with ichiro baserunning skills you need him on base as much as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you want Ichiro OB as much as posible does not make the question absurd. The question meant to see what kind of power numbers would it take to make it +EV to lose some of the lead-off and base-stealing that Ichiro brings. If Ichiro could hit 290 and drive in 130runs I doubt anyone would say that Seattle would be better off having him on base more at leadoff and getting 60RBI a year.

[Pudge714]

As a general rule
OBP*1.8 + SLG is a better use of OPS.
So in this case for every .001 he would lose in OBP he would need to gain .0018 in SLG.

[THAY3R]

Also, "Speed" is reflected in a players Slugging Percentage, and a players Stolen Base ability is often barely +EV, if not -EV.

In fairness to Ichriro though, his last 2 seasons re: SB's have been ridiculous.