TP/TK turned into river bluff c/r

[shaundeeb]

50fo on stars been quite tag this guy hasn't been remarkable in a good or bad way just a standard guy which is why on the river I am sure he doesn't have AK thus I am way behind his range now so I shove.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t2770)
Button (t4435)
Hero (t7770)
BB (t3534)
UTG (t10360)
UTG+1 (t3060)
MP1 (t7895)
MP2 (t10101)
MP3 (t2335)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t200, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t500, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls t400.

Flop: (t2200) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t800</font>, Hero calls t800, MP1 folds.

Turn: (t3800) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t1000</font>, Hero calls t1000.

River: (t5800) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t1200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t5370</font>,

[flyingmoose]

After we match his flop bet the pot's 60% of our remaining stack and we're likely good, plus we could get action from worse queens and draws and even stubborn JJ/1010 hands sometimes. I don't really get why we're peeling a turn instead of raising with intent to get it in.

I don't like the river c/r much. I don't trust unknowns in $55 freezeouts to fold 2-pair.

[J.A.K.]

I can't mention anything you haven't thought of so I'll ask a couple...

Do you ever raise this flop? Is adding the diamond draw as a possible holding by calling part of your reasoning...i.e are you betting or c/r turn if a diamond falls?

[shaundeeb]

If I don't have Ad I raise flop like 90% of the time.

[Stumpy]

He raised to 3BB after 1 limper, and then made small bets the whole way, in his mind extracting value.
I don't see him giving up getting 2:1 odds on the river.

Seems like he'd check behind if he was worried about the 9.

[shaundeeb]

doesn't fit the range you speak of for PF flop and turn not being afraid of the 9 on the river.

[zoobird]

Not sure I'm understanding - you're checking the flop hoping your backdoor flush draw turns into the nut flush?

If that's the case, why aren't you betting on the turn where you are likely best and no longer have the flush possibility?

[shaundeeb]

no because I had Ad I have little to no worry about him being on the FD, since most of raising hands after 2 limpers to be suited in diamonds would almost always have A in them

[Sherman]

If I am reading this correctly, Shaun is saying that by the river he is certain villain has KK+ what may have been initiated as a check/call or check/fold on the river became a clear raise because his small bet means KK+ (added with the rest of the line).

So I think it is a good read. The question is can villain actually fold an overpair? If he can this is a good board to get that fold on.

Sherman

[Thegunshow]

I definitely tend to see QQ+ with a 3x raise after limpers. I just don't play stakes high enough to expect someone to be able to fold Aces or Kings here. Maybe I'm not giving my opponents enough credit? Maybe Shaun's giving this guy too much credit?