crazy AKs bubble spot

[PokahPokah]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t690)
BB (t3430)
UTG (t170)
Button (t9210)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1850</font>,hero ?

[Sunkist]

instant call.

[Velocity]

ridiculously standard call

edit to note: I'm not sure anything can be ridiculous and standard, so just a call

[PokahPokah]

with utg all in next hand ? (on t170) so i could literally call atc next hand and more than likly be 3 vs the short stack ?

[DeuceSeven]

instafold. utg has 170.

[The Venetian]

[ QUOTE ]
instant call.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ADLinden]

i think its an easy fold

[ymu]

It depends on our $EV in this spot compared to the chances of UTG busting before we're in the BB, and our chances of surviving the BB if he doesn't.

BB here is unlikely to get involved here without a huge hand, and big stack is probably raising ATC, so we're probably about 2:1 favourites to survive if we call.

Compare that to what happens if we fold (390 chips) - most importantly, UTG's chances of winning/losing the next hand. If he's up against one opponent (seems likely, as either biggie raises or SB takes him on), UTG is 50/50 to treble up next hand. If he does, he can take his chances in the SB or fold with 210 and wait for us to bust. Back to square one, but we're in an ugly spot again.

The idea of folding and calling AI the next hand is better, because he busts out 2/3 - biggie has to call but not raise the medium stack off for it to be 3/4 (ie prolly not happening).

If biggie folded, it'd be amusing for the medium stack to fold and leave two shorties fighting for a 1BB stack which threatens noone ITM, but this is unlikely, and he should want to help end the bubble one way or another. If biggie were in the SB next hand, it would be more worrying for the fold/AI next hand idea.

So, if we fold we could get ITM a decent %, but we're almost certainly taking 3rd and no better. Is it worth folding as a 2:1 favourite against biggie's range, when trebling up gives us a shot at playing for better than third?

I don't know the answer. I haven't run the maths in enough detail. I just don't think it's as simple as "fold because UTG is short" or "call because we're so short".

But what I'm getting is:

Call - bust out 1/3; 2/3 treble up and have a shot at making better than 3rd (1980 chips).

Fold and call AI next hand - 1/6 bust out (shortie wins 1/3 and we lose to biggie 1/2); 1/6 win 440 side pot (shortie wins and we beat biggie, shortie on 510 with foldable SB coming next); 1/3 bust out with shortie and get 3rd; 1/3 bust shortie and have 950 chips going into ITM.

[taipan168]

Sick spot. I think you have to call though, you're getting like 37 to 1 on the call, if you fold this you're all in on the next hand with 40 chips (not even enough to post the ante) and there's no guarantee that UTG is going out when he's AI the next hand.

Plus if we call this and win we've got something of a shot for 2nd or better, if we fold this and even if UTG goes out the best we can do is 3rd.

[mortimo]

I fold