AA in SB vs steal

[KitCloudkicker]

6 max situation:

an ABC 25/15 opens in CO. you have AA in the SB. the BB is loose and usually defends for 1 bet but folds for 2. do you 3 bet or not?

[Tryptamean]

I think this is a good spot to consider cold calling. You get 1 more sb from CO almost 100% of the time on the flop anyway. I think letting a bad player in that will pay off with worse hands is worth the chance of him sucking out.

If you have a LAG image, go ahead and 3bet. It will likely get BB's dead money in the pot and CO should be more prone to give you action with a TP type of hand.

[Oink]

call

[Saikkonen]

By just calling we will give some equity away. So if we assume that if we get it HU with CO our equity is 85% against a stealingrange like 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo.
If we let BB in with any random hand out equity will fall to about 73%. So the maths is like this for the immediate EV:
call: 6sb*0.73= 4.38SB
raise: at least: 7sb*0.85= 5.95

So this we give away we have to win in future rounds and 1.5 sb is a lot considering:
-we will probably go to showdown anyway so we have some bad implied odds.
- BB may call anyway securing us an even bigger expectation
- if you occasionally reraises steals from sb with hands like 77+, KJs+, AJ0+ or even QJs you may get better action.
- a coldcall from an otherwise TA might seem too obvious.

So I will almost always reraise this confident that I did not give anything away

[Oink]

Good ananlysis but something is wrong here

[ QUOTE ]
call: 6sb*0.73= 4.38SB
raise: at least: 7sb*0.85= 5.95

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call and BB calls the pot is 6 SB.

If you 3-bet and BB folds and CO calls the pot is 7 SB.

So far so good. But if you want to do that Eq analysis you haev to consider the fact that when you raise you put in 1 more bet yourself. So when you 3-bet the pot gets bigger but so does your own investment in it.

Shouldnt it be something like

call: 6*0.73 - 1.5 = 2.88
raise: 7*0.85 - 2.5 = 3.45

Now the diff is only 0.57 small bets

[rafiki]

I always raise. Be curious if someone could prove that it's incorrect to do so.

[callmedonnie]

I am 3 betting because I don't want to invite anyone to crack my Aces without paying for it and also because I don't think I'm revealing my hand as I'm three betting many other hands to a CO steal, such as 66+, AT+, KQ. Maybe more if the guy steals too much.

[kimchi]

I'm always re-raising. Mostly since a call looks so supicious from most player except the donks.

If the loose BB want to have a shot at my aces with his 96-offsuit, then he's welcome - but he's going to have to pay extra to see the flop. And so is the stealer.

Also, if the stealer's hand was a genuine raising hand, then we may well get plenty of action HU anyway.

[frenchpignouf]

If the big blind call 2 with 96o, you have to 3 bet for sure. But if the big blind calls just 1 with 96o, it is better to CC. You win money from the BB because:

-He don't have the odds to see the flop.
-With a cr on the flop you can cut his odds and push your equity edge.
- he makes bad calls.


If the CO is an average player, he don't know you can have aces. CC from the sb happens very often. If the guy knows you it's different obv.

In any situation where the CO raise flop if you 3 bet pf, the CO would have 3 bet the flop if you CC pf imho. But the converse is not true. For example on 10 7 2 flop he can 3 bet the flop HU with overcards in attempt to get a free card.

It is true you can loose money, if the CO can four bets but it is not too much of his range, and you can often regain this on the flop.