controversial opinion about uselessness of online poker

[McStinky]

I decided a couple months ago to play poker for a living, and soon after that I realized that I like live poker a million times more than online. So I decided I would try to become a really good live player and hopefully beat the biggest no limit games at Foxwoods and in Atlantic City. This should be sufficient to make a solid six figure salary with little work, which is all I want to do.

At first, I assumed that I would still have to play online when I am not at the casino for training purposes. I figured there is no substitute for seeing hundreds of hands an hour and experiencing all the different situations that can occur. Plus you can do all kinds of statistical analysis with online poker.

However, I am now seeing that online and live are truly two different worlds. I haven't played full ring online, but I know that with 6-max, as you move up you encounter more solid multitablers, and you have to get more sophisticated about using aggression and mixing up your play. Also, the stacks are always short relative to live games.

In live games, even the biggest ones like 10/25 NL, the players' skill levels range from mediocre to horrible, and people skills and just paying attention come into play in a huge way. When there is a rich doctor at the table and he states that he won't lie about his hand to young kids because he wants to save them money, you better notice this and take advantage of it. I can give a thousand more examples of big +EV situations that come up because you see people sitting there with you and talking. There must be some level where people get good enough not to give off huge tells, but I have yet to encounter it.

Now, I'm not saying you don't have to master the math of the game as well as the people skills. For every interesting hand I play, I intend to solve all the little mathematical puzzles it gives rise to. But I'm just not sure where logging lots of hours online comes into play. The big money situations that come up live just don't occur online because the games are too different. Online is great when you are first learning the game, but I have been playing for a few years now and am somewhat competent.

So I am wondering if people agree or disagree with what I'm saying. I know that online players tend to be much better than live players, but my question is whether I can become one of the best live players (at least at Foxwoods or in AC) without playing another hand of online poker. Is higher-stakes live no limit poker really mostly about preying on the rich donators and predictable old-timers, or is there something I am missing?

[chesspain]

I can't tell if you are a very clever leveler or a really droll troll.

[McStinky]

My post was entirely serious, and I know I am not saying much that people here don't already know. I am honestly curious what people think about the role of online poker in trying to beat live games. Please enlighten me as to why this is a stupid question or whatever.

[DumbHick]

Well, he did provide us with the following thread:
Link.

[soulvamp]

Online and live play, as you said, are two completely different worlds involving different skill sets. I would say in your situation, you could use online for a supplement. But I don't see how it would necessarily serve any training purpose.

[JLimbs]

I am confused, your previous post made on 8/20 made it sound like you were a 2-5 NL player and that you were soon hoping to move up to 5-10 NL. Now a week later you come back and say you are a winning 10-25 NL player.

Are you really basing your entire financial future on a sample size of 1 week of live play? I have played a lot of live poker and I think you are a little wrong about what Casino 10-25 NL games are usually like.

Yes there are often rich tourists in town for the weekend donating their money. However the other players that regular games that high are usally other sharks. Your profit in the bigger live cash games will mostly come from avoiding the sharks and going after the fish.

It sounds easy when you say it like that, but doing it consistently in deep stack games against the best players in the casino is no small task.

I agree with what some have said managing your expectations. Hopefully your success will continue, but I think its going to take more time to really get an idea for whether or not you will beat in these games in the long run.

-Jerry

[McStinky]

[ QUOTE ]
I am confused, your previous post made on 8/20 made it sound like you were a 2-5 NL player and that you were soon hoping to move up to 5-10 NL. Now a week later you come back and say you are a winning 10-25 NL player.

Are you really basing your entire financial future on a sample size of 1 week of live play? I have played a lot of live poker and I think you are a little wrong about what Casino 10-25 NL games are usually like.

Yes there are often rich tourists in town for the weekend donating their money. However the other players that regular games that high are usally other sharks. Your profit in the bigger live cash games will mostly come from avoiding the sharks and going after the fish.

It sounds easy when you say it like that, but doing it consistently in deep stack games against the best players in the casino is no small task.

I agree with what some have said managing your expectations. Hopefully your success will continue, but I think its going to take more time to really get an idea for whether or not you will beat in these games in the long run.

-Jerry

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what I said to make everyone think I am some naive fool who will never make it. I am not just starting to play poker. I have been playing (up to 5/10 NL live) and studying for a few years, and I am a decent player. I decided to go pro a couple months ago and warmed up with 2/5 NL. Now I am at 5/10 NL and have my sights set on 10/25 NL eventually. I have savings so my bankroll is plenty big enough for a big downswing, and I have done a lot to make myself prepared emtionally for the inevitable swings I will encounter. I am going to try to play lots of weekend days, though I will be playing weekdays too. And yes, there are tons of fools playing 5/10 NL at Foxwoods and even the regulars have some big leaks in their game. My expectation of success is based on this and not on the meaningless sample size I have so far. Don't know what my win rate will be, but from my experience and what I have read on the forums I think it will be a solid one. What the heck am I missing here? Why don't believe that poker can be really easy and stress-free if you take the right approach?

[pocketpared]

Let's not forget the gut wrenching flus you can catch playing live at a table full of gamblers so degenerate God forbid they miss a weekend worth of gambling even when they're sick and contagious. I'm currently in the throes of one caught this last weekend and it was the final straw, along with 3 hours one way driving in traffic, that finally made me set up an online account.
"What I love about poker is sizing people up, table talk, tells, etc. I guess I will still use online for training, but I can't shake the feeling that the "real" game takes place in the casino."

[canvasbck]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what I said to make everyone think I am some naive fool who will never make it. I am not just starting to play poker. I have been playing (up to 5/10 NL live) and studying for a few years, and I am a decent player. I decided to go pro a couple months ago and warmed up with 2/5 NL. Now I am at 5/10 NL and have my sights set on 10/25 NL eventually. I have savings so my bankroll is plenty big enough for a big downswing, and I have done a lot to make myself prepared emtionally for the inevitable swings I will encounter. I am going to try to play lots of weekend days, though I will be playing weekdays too. And yes, there are tons of fools playing 5/10 NL at Foxwoods and even the regulars have some big leaks in their game. My expectation of success is based on this and not on the meaningless sample size I have so far. Don't know what my win rate will be, but from my experience and what I have read on the forums I think it will be a solid one. What the heck am I missing here? Why don't believe that poker can be really easy and stress-free if you take the right approach?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are underestimating the power of a severe downswing when you are making your living at poker. Yes, you are doing all you can to prepare yourself for the inevitable, but it will eventually kick you in the nuts. This is a promise. A brutal downswing will make you start second guessing your game, and will also make you play differently. This often leads to an even more prolonged downswing. The best line I have ever heard reguarding the phenomenon is this "There is a limit to your upswings but there is no limit to a downswing"

I went through a severe downswing (live and on line) where I had six consecutive losing months. I don't rely on poker for my living and it was still very tough to get through it. I hope that you are as capable of dealing with it as you belive you are. I truely do wish you the best of luck.

[atrainpsu]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what I said to make everyone think I am some naive fool who will never make it. I am not just starting to play poker. I have been playing (up to 5/10 NL live) and studying for a few years, and I am a decent player. I decided to go pro a couple months ago and warmed up with 2/5 NL. Now I am at 5/10 NL and have my sights set on 10/25 NL eventually. I have savings so my bankroll is plenty big enough for a big downswing, and I have done a lot to make myself prepared emtionally for the inevitable swings I will encounter. I am going to try to play lots of weekend days, though I will be playing weekdays too. And yes, there are tons of fools playing 5/10 NL at Foxwoods and even the regulars have some big leaks in their game. My expectation of success is based on this and not on the meaningless sample size I have so far. Don't know what my win rate will be, but from my experience and what I have read on the forums I think it will be a solid one. What the heck am I missing here? Why don't believe that poker can be really easy and stress-free if you take the right approach?

[/ QUOTE ]
McStinky, I understand what you are saying here. While I have a fairly small sample size playing 2-5, I can say with strong conviction that the difference in skill between 2-5 and 1-2 has been minimal. If I was to play bigger and still see a minimal difference in skill, then I think I would project my expected winrates to be something like this:
$20/hr at 1-2
$35/hr at 2-5
$60/hr at 5-10

I think this winrate is reasonable, and if you are emotionally strong and can stay on an even-keel, you can withstand a downswing with relatively little stress. Don't worry about the attitude of the naysayers, although I would keep in mind what they have to say.
Good Luck. I wish the best.