n00b variance question

Heisenb3rg · #1 08-27-2007, 07:04 AM

Dropped 3500$ in 2/5 NL live in a fairly short period of time... probabily like 1-2k hands or so (7 buyins ish).

How bad of a downswing is that in NL terms???

What kind of bankroll do you normally need for these games?

Grunch · #2 08-27-2007, 10:36 AM

7 buyins in 2k hands is pretty much normal variance. I mean it's not unusual for a good player to lose that much that fast.

Typically however, if a good player loses that much that fast, it's because he was playing like crap. People blame variance for their results too much, when they should be taking accountability for them.

Surf · #3 08-27-2007, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
7 buyins in 2k hands is pretty much normal variance. I mean it's not unusual for a good player to lose that much that fast.

Typically however, if a good player loses that much that fast, it's because he was playing like crap. People blame variance for their results too much, when they should be taking accountability for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with both of these. 7 BIs is "normal variance" but it seems whenever I drop 7BIs and I look over my hands in PT I can find usually 1-2BIs worth of tilt / stackings that didn't need to happen.

I would take a fine-toothed comb to your game after dropping 7BIs regardless of track record / ability, but especially so if you are relatively new to NL, because the obvious answer is that you could almost certainly be playing better.

Surf

Robin Foolz · #4 08-27-2007, 05:13 PM

he's talking about live nl and not online nl. do ya'lls advice change any now?

heis, were you putting in a lot of money in drawing dead or as a significant dog? or was it just suckouts? i think, assuming a goot player, the former generally indicates playing poorly (maybe your reads are whack) while the latter generally indicates running poorly (and, yes, generally you can do both).

Heisenb3rg · #5 08-27-2007, 05:26 PM

I know I played poorly for sure and its not just variance..
Im just curious what is normal variance... (BTW online 6-max variance should be much higher.. if you guys are considering that)

I have been putting a lot of money drawing dead/thin... (But I cant count how many times ive folded TPTK+ HU/3-way as well).

Part of the running bad is like, literally 70%+ of the time I hit TPTK , someone outflops me.. Almost everytime I c-bet, it gets raised or floated. Stuff that makes you play bad because the frequency of these events makes you assume "they have to be messing with me" when it's really just a [censored] run of events.
Forcing you to adjust incorrectly because you feel pushed over.

Like after your c-bet gets floated 4 times in a row, firing two barrels when you shouldn't...

In NL because so little showdowns are seen , it's hard to figure if you are just getting outflopped constantly, or you are getting pushed over..
How else are you supposed to counter this, other than looking people up light?

sethypooh21 · #6 08-27-2007, 05:29 PM

C-bet less.

From some of the hands you've posted/discussed, I think you have a tendency to get too trixy preflop which is leading to a lot of marginal post flop decisions. Have you read PNL yet? I'd suggest it, just for some general advice about preflop bet sizing which will make post flop play much cleaner for you.

Nick C · #7 08-27-2007, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW online 6-max variance should be much higher.. if you guys are considering that)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm wondering how accurate this is. (I genuinely don't know, but it is a question, I think.)

The casino players are going to be far worse than online players at the same limits, I know, but there is this to consider as well: From what I've seen, live play can get pretty goddamn wild at times, with preflop raises to like 8-10x the BB becoming the table standard that occurs in nearly every hand.

DeathDonkey · #8 08-28-2007, 02:15 AM

Just from the results I'd say this is not variance, its obviously possible I'm wrong. The thing about a live 2/5 game is you should be stealing / crushing them so bad the big pots don't have that much of an effect. Online in 6 max games a lot of your results will be determined by the big pots but in soft live games you should almost win no matter what unless the big pots are just overwhelmingly bad for you one day.

-DeathDonkey

Heisenb3rg · #9 08-28-2007, 07:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just from the results I'd say this is not variance, its obviously possible I'm wrong. The thing about a live 2/5 game is you should be stealing / crushing them so bad the big pots don't have that much of an effect. Online in 6 max games a lot of your results will be determined by the big pots but in soft live games you should almost win no matter what unless the big pots are just overwhelmingly bad for you one day.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I need to find softer games then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Stealing/crushing them so big pots dont matter?
I dont really follow you

DeathDonkey · #10 08-28-2007, 08:13 PM

If I'm playing live 2/5 NL I'd expect to win many hundreds of dollars in a session in pots that are smaller than $100 each, because people play bad and let you rob them blind all day. If I then lose two big pots that cost me $1000 I'd expect to be closer to even than down $1000.

-DeathDonkey