10/20, KK v River Checkraise

[FlyingStart]

Villain is TheMasterJ33 who has Tagish stats, maybe slightly on the looser side. We have no history before this session. This is a hand that got to showdown an orbit or two ago:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $2,027.00
BB: $3,843.00
Hero (BTN): $2,127.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $70.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $50.00

Flop: ($150) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $120.00</font>, BB calls $120.00

Turn: ($390) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $220.00</font>, BB calls $220.00

River: ($830) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Pot Size: $830.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Ace Jack high) and LOST (-$410.00)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Nines) and WON (+$419.00)

which was pretty weird, but shows he prob doesnt give me a ton of cred. Also note the turn betsizing which may be relevant for the actual hand:


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $2,272.00
BB: $3,112.00
Hero (BTN): $2,604.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $70.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $50.00

Flop: ($150) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $120.00</font>, BB calls $120.00

Turn: ($390) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $215.00</font>, BB calls $215.00

River: ($820) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $615.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $2,707.00</font> Hero scratches balls and?

[Pigeons]

I call this.
I dont think he c/c's 2 streets with sucker end straightdraw on paired board. I think most players fire it up on the flop with set, given it has many draws. Sets get more money in somewhere before the river.. mostly. 88 prob also raises this flop in a 3handed game. He might have a tricky A2 though.

[JemY]

Pot Odds: 2 to1, we need to win 30% of the time

Would he not c/r a FD with overcards on the flop? If he does have a FD,I wouldn't expect
him to c/r AI river with a busted FD more than 20% of the time. (already a generous number)
Now we need to win another 10% of the time against his range for the call to be breakeven.
There is obviously no hand he is check raising AI for value that you beat.
Do you really expect him to raise 89 AI for value? If he thought he was good he would just
snapcall this, of course. Raising would be stupid since your hand is either an overpair
that's not going to fold a lot, or air that he can now beat.
Same goes with the AJ type-hands that he played previously.
If he thinks ace high is good, he's calling (same explanation as before).
And I don't see how he could be raising 99 or TT here.
There are many hands in his range that have you crushed (67, 78, 54, A2, 88, T9dd) and
really few that you beat (missed flush draw with overcards, for the most part)

To me we don't win here much more than 20-25% of the time. So fold &gt; call

[freeucm]

Isn't this line more likely a bluff then if he bets out on river all in? Just curious.

[leatherass]

I'd fold here unless you knew villan had a propensity to river c/r bluff. I truthfully think he has specifically 88 here a lot as that is the hand that makes the most sense given his line. Althouhg a lower FD is very possible too given his line. Sick spot and I think versus some players it is an easy call and some an easy fold. Against a relatively unknow I think you have to give him credit here.

[whorasaurus]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot Odds: 2 to1, we need to win 30% of the time


There are many hands in his range that have you crushed (67, 78, 54, A2, 88, T9dd) and
really few that you beat (missed flush draw with overcards, for the most part)


[/ QUOTE ]

do you realize we beat these two pair hands?

[king_of_drafts]

folds

[MezmerizePLZ]

sick, readsoul, prob fold

[FlyingStart]

To the foldcamp, any particular hand you are putting villain on? Or are you saying 'fold' more because it would take some cohones to bluff here ?

[markuisis]

i think this is leaning towards a fold, there r a lot of hands that beat u which i think he could have given his line: pocket 8s (unlucky but consistent with his line), its possible he had a set on the flop and made a boat with the turn and maybe wanted to give u a cheap river card if he put u on a draw (this is consistent with his line and would be a good way to play it by him IMO - him checking the river would make sense with this line as he might figure ud bet a busted draw - or maaaaaaybe have made a straight) and much less likely, 4-5 (doubtful hed call pre-flop and stick around on a paired turn but some ppl arent very good). it is unlikely he stuck around with a fd on a paired turn and playing oop on the river so a busted draw is not likely, so what hand wouldve stuck around which would make this re-raise on the river?? Also, uve clearly repped a strong hand which makes a bluff even less likely

*i think an overpair of tens or higher is unlikely to check-raise the river here and would have most likely raised the flop or turn rather than calling blindly (along with the likelihood that they wouldve re-raised pf rather than play oop