Stars 20/180 - 14 BB's in SB, BB has 12 BB's... 11 players left

[xGREGORx]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t12833)
UTG (t77904)
MP (t8591)
Button (t10300)
Hero (t14377)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero ???

I haven't shown any junk, and BB hasn't been restealing. 3xBB open raise with these stacks and fold if reraised? Open-push?

[erc007]

If you're not open-shoving this hand everytime, you're losing a ton of value. Shoving is EV+ and cEV+ and unexploitable. 3X then folding is the worst option/line that you can take.

[JammyDodga]

Bump.

I'd like to hear what other people think about this one. Is it worth playing a little more cautious here because of the bubble? In the 180 the bubble from 10 to 9th is worth hanging on for, because the prizes go up pretty steep from 9.

We have an awkward stack size so I'm not sure the risk/reward ratio is that good for a push, but like you say, I'm not too fond of the 3*BB raise. I'm not advocating being too weak, but I'm just not sure risking it all with marginal hand here for a couple of thousand chips is as clearly +$EV as you think.

[jrock901]

If I'd play it I'd shove it. I really hate a 3bb raise. If he calls, then you're stuck playing OOP and making your decisions that much harder. I'm not a math guy either, so maybe some of them could chime in here?

[levAA]

Specially because of the 180 structure this gets even more a push.
We have 100 antes here, so actual M=7!
So raising3x/folding is the worst option i think.
I think even completing the SB is better, but shoving is clearly the best option here.

[JammyDodga]

Does no one think the bubble is important here? I'm not saying it trumps M considerations, but its got to be considered right?

Also, I think you are in a better place to sit and wait with an M of 7 with antes than without. Your fold equity is higher for the same M.

[BrandiFan]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump.

I'd like to hear what other people think about this one. Is it worth playing a little more cautious here because of the bubble? In the 180 the bubble from 10 to 9th is worth punishing your opponents for, because the prizes go up pretty steep from 9.

[/ QUOTE ]If you're playing for 9th, fold.

[Willd]

Ok, this hand interested me so I did some math on it. If you shove K8o and flip your hand over he would be correct to call with any hand that is better than 45% against K8o:
22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A2o+,K8o+
which is 28.2% of hands.

This means 72.8% of the time you win the 2000, increasing your stack to 15777. The 28.2% of the time you are called you average out at a 36/64 dog in a 25966 pot, increasing your stack to 27510 if you win and decreasing it to 1544 if you lose. This results in an expected stack size of:
0.728 * 15777 = 11486
0.282 * 0.36 * 27510 = 2793
0.282 * 0.64 * 1544 = 279
11486 + 2793 + 279 = 14558
This shows that the shove is +cEV even if the BB plays 100% perfectly. If he folds more often (very likely) or calls with any hand outside of this range (unlikely) then the cEV of the shove increases.

If you give BB a more realistic calling range of
77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
which is the top 15% of hands and might still be too loose (how many people are calling off 12 bbs with QJo, especially near the bubble?) then your expected stack becomes
0.849 * 15777 = 13394
0.151 * 0.327 * 27510 = 1358
0.151 * 0.673 * 1544 = 157
13394 + 1358 + 157 = 14909
which is increasing your stack by more than a small blind every time you play. The tighter BB is the more profitable this shove becomes.

For those talking about the bubble considerations. If anything the fact that we're near the bubble should mean it is even better for us to shove, as BB will be calling tighter. From our point of view the increase in pay from 10th to 9th is very small, whereas the increased chance of getting a top 3 finish from the 2000 extra chips more than makes up for the ~10% of the time that you are crippled.

[SuperUberBob]

If I'm open raising this preflop 3x BB, I'm calling a shove. Otherwise, I just open shove preflop.

I personally like the latter. The former isn't too bad if you think villain will only call an open shove with hands that have you crushed, but will also play back at you with raggedy hands if you raise 3x BB from the button.

[Andrew1593]

Nice calculations, Willd. I don't have much to add other than to point you (and everyone else) to the Sklansky-Chubukov Rankings (see NLHET&amp;P) if you haven't seen them already. BSB play is one of the few problems in poker that can be rigorously solved.

The Sklansky-Chubukov number for K8o is 30.47, which means you can move in profitably if you are laying less than 30.47-to-3, or 10.2-to-1 (The Sklansky-Chubukov numbers assume blinds of 1 and 2 with no ante). Here there is 2000 in the pot, and our stack is 14377, so we're laying a little more than 7-to-1. This makes it a clear move-in.

Interestingly, there are other treatments of this kind of problem. In The Mathematics of Poker, Chen and Ankenman also present a jam-or-fold table. The number for K8o is &gt;50 BBs, meaning that if your stack size is below 50 BBs, you should automatically jam with this hand in the SB.

Finally, in The Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide, solves the BSB problem with what he claims are revisions to Sklansky and Chubukov's system. It is true, as Sklansky admits, that the Sklansky-Chubukov rankings are the worst-case scenario because they assume the BB will play perfectly. That means that you can often jam with a stack size slightly larger than what the Sklansky-Chubukov numbers recommend. Bloch gives a number of 18 BBs for K8o in his jam-or-fold table.

The best part about this scenario, however, is that ALL THE EXPERTS AGREE. Doesn't happen often. Shove and close your eyes.