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#1
08-15-2007, 07:16 PM
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Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
As the smaller chart below plainly demonstrates support has been breached. Also professional traders again added to short interest and that selling has continued into the nite session with further new lows.
What are the chances of record or near record downs tomorrow or Firday? 
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#2
08-15-2007, 07:22 PM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
I will prop. bet you that the dow does not close with a single day drop of over 450 points either tomorrow or friday. Ill lay you 1.5-1 odds and bet up to 1000$. Ill require escrow of course
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#5
08-16-2007, 12:42 AM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Does anyone really believe these charts work? [/ QUOTE ] some do. not sure why. [/ QUOTE ] same reason people jump on any get rich bandwagon.
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#7
08-16-2007, 01:32 AM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Does anyone really believe these charts work? [/ QUOTE ] some do. not sure why. [/ QUOTE ] same reason people jump on any get rich bandwagon. [/ QUOTE ] i'm as logical and fundamental as anybody gets...but there is some good reason (i.e. theories) why these charts (maybe not these exactly, but TA in general) can work far beyond what would be expected. one theory is that markets are driven by humans and, throwing out all value indicators, humans tend to react similarly in similar situations over time. "supports" can be built by the net participants purchasing as some level is hit. other indicators TAs use can also work in a similar manner by using human interactions with each other in the market. as everyone i think also knows, i highly respect benoit mandelbrot and, despite his thinking that TA is very bad to use as a practice, he has acknowledged that TA does seem to show persistant profits. the thing that i always go back to though is that you can generate almost perfect replicas (supports, trends and all) of human price charts via a randomly generated process (Multi-Fractal Model of Asset Prices). kinda hurts the TA arguments... Barron
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#8
08-15-2007, 09:43 PM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
[ QUOTE ]
I will prop. bet you that the dow does not close with a single day drop of over 450 points either tomorrow or friday. Ill lay you 1.5-1 odds and bet up to 1000$. Ill require escrow of course [/ QUOTE ] Just go write some aug spx puts. gl with 1.5-1
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#9
08-16-2007, 11:37 AM
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Good bet but a little short on the odds
With the odds of a 450 point decline on any given day at over 100 to 1, even give the current conditions 1.5 - 1 is more than a little short, wouldn't you agree?
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#10
08-16-2007, 11:40 AM
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Re: Good bet but a little short on the odds
[ QUOTE ]
With the odds of a 450 point decline on any given day at over 100 to 1, even give the current conditions 1.5 - 1 is more than a little short, wouldn't you agree? [/ QUOTE ] care to cite how you calculate 100:1? Barron
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