Friend offers ridiculously silly baseball bet

Moonshine · #1 08-14-2007, 05:49 PM

His 100 dollars vs my 100k dollars on the giants winning the world series.I know it's absurd but this is a +ev bet right?

Essentially I'm getting 1:1000

This is obv an extreme example and i'm not going to take it but it brought up the thought: How exactly do you go about assessing the value of these retarded bets and is it ever worth it to take one that's maybe less extreme?

The giants are 16.5 out with 42 games left. Let's assume they go 30-12 while the dbacks go 12-30, the padres go 15-28, the rockies go 17-25, and the dodgers go like 18-24

Right off the bat, what the hell are the odds of that happening? Even if we assume the Giants and everyone else have about a 50% chance of winning their games from here on out. Even if there's only about a 10% chance of these winnign teams losing so badly and 10% chance of the Giants winning so much (that has to be way too low/high right?)...

.1*.1*.1*.1*.1 ~ 100k to 1, just of the giants winnign the division...

I'm sure that number is fuzzy and I dont have a calculator to do the proper calculations but it has to be greater than 1k to 1 on the division alone. Then you figure they would only have a 15% or so chance of winning once they made the playoffs...

I dunno, maybe i'm way off here, but it seems like if you had a big enough bankroll and the necessary volume, you could take the opposite side of a trade like this all day in theory and actually come ahead...

thoughts?

At what risk/reward ratio do you guys who do this for a living usually take these bets? What would you need here to be comfortable with the loss potential, 500:1? 100:1?

wiper · #2 08-14-2007, 05:58 PM

i'm confused, you're putting up 100k, vs. his $100?

if so, enjoy the hundo...

AllinDan · #3 08-14-2007, 06:11 PM

according to BP's PECOTA adjusted playoff chances, the giants will only make the playoffs one out of every 35,000 different rest of the seasons. Since their chances of winning once they get there are much less than 1/8, this is +ev!

Thremp · #4 08-14-2007, 06:17 PM

Haha. Just take his 100 bucks now.

youtalkfunny · #5 08-14-2007, 10:51 PM

Can't you make $100 in a couple of months by investing $100k in something safe? T-Bills? CD's?

[ QUOTE ]
according to BP's PECOTA adjusted playoff chances, the giants will only make the playoffs one out of every 35,000 different rest of the seasons. Since their chances of winning once they get there are much less than 1/8, this is +ev!

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're the hottest team in baseball heading into the post-season, I'd say they have a much better than 1/8 chance if they get there.

Thremp · #6 08-14-2007, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If they're the hottest team in baseball heading into the post-season, I'd say they have a much better than 1/8 chance if they get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is perfectly false and will wager with you on any "hot team".

youtalkfunny · #7 08-14-2007, 11:43 PM

<---Read your location, and get back to me.

(Edit: while you're at it, read mine. And to think, I just wrote a post YESTERDAY defending you, vouching that your opinion should be respected. I wrote something to the effect of "I don't think he's ever written anything about booking or betting sports with which I've disagreed." That didn't take long to undo.)

CieloAzor · #8 08-14-2007, 11:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can't you make $100 in a couple of months by investing $100k in something safe? T-Bills? CD's?

This isn't a sportsbook where he has to tie up the money for a couple of months. He can invest it in something safe AND make the bet.

MicroBob · #9 08-15-2007, 01:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can't you make $100 in a couple of months by investing $100k in something safe? T-Bills? CD's?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he doesn't have to have his $100k locked-up then he could be free to invest it wherever he likes AND take this guy up on the bet.

MicroBob · #10 08-15-2007, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The giants are 16.5 out with 42 games left. Let's assume they go 30-12 while the dbacks go 12-30, the padres go 15-28, the rockies go 17-25, and the dodgers go like 18-24

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the NY Giants in '51 went 37-7 in their last 44 games to overcome their 13 1/2 game deficit to the Brooklyn Dodgers.
That was only one team of course (maybe they weren't in 2nd place when their comeback started, not sure).

But I would think it would take a more monumental effort from the Giants than just 32-12 while hoping every other team completely collapsed somehow.

Also note that there should be a lot of inter-divisional battles towards the end of the season.
It might be approaching near impossible for EACH of those teams to all lose that many games if they're all playing each other a ton.

Anyway, if SF somehow were to go 36-6 or something ridiculous then they would finish 88-74.
This would actually have potential to be good enough to win the division or even the wild-card.
Yes, they could overtake all those teams for the wildcard even with only 88 wins.

88-74 is a .543 win % and right now the WC is led by SD who have a .542.

So 36-6 in their last 42 would give them a chance.
And I think even as bad as 34-8 so that they finish with only 86 wins COULD possibly do it for either the division or the WC although it would take a lot of help.

I would strongly consider taking this bet though even though I can find ways for it to be not completely impossible for this to happen.
The Giants do suck afterall.

For a little bit less I would almost be willing to take this bet just for "will the Giants make the post-season."
So when you factor in that it's a bet on whether the Giants will make the World-Series I think it ain't too shabby.