When to stop with KK.

JamesBJames · #1 08-14-2007, 07:14 AM

Notes: MP2 is very, very loose preflop and overplays his hands postflop aggressively. I've also seen him cold calling a lot with any two suited cards preflop, like 53s and J4s. Since he cold calls with any two suited cards, I'd surely imagine he'll limp in with any two regardless of his position.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero caps, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, Hero....folds?

I capped the flop considering I'm only really behind three combos of 22 and three combos of 55. MP2 can easily 3-bet with AJ, JK, or Jx[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I figured a cap would be for value. I also thought about calling and raising a non-dangerous turn.

On the turn, BB's donk is a bit weird. I don't see how the 9 could help his hand, considering it looks like he's on a draw from his flop action. Do I lay it down after MP2 raises BB's turn bet? I'd hate to lay down the best hand, but it seems that any diamond sinks me, and if I'm actually behind, I only have two outs (or a bit more if either villain has two pair). I would really hate to put in four more big bets here if my equity is bad.

Is this an easy fold? Since MP2 is a complete maniac, does your decision change at all?

Sushiglutton · #2 08-14-2007, 07:28 AM

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Since MP2 is a complete maniac, does your decision change at all?

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

This is a tough spot but I think u must call. Pot is to big to fold even for two bets. I think u still have a very reasonable chance to have the best hand. If villain is like u described u will win this like ~40%. Folding would be a blunder.

Bona · #3 08-14-2007, 08:19 AM

The way I read this is MP2 is not the real threat. BB can't really hold anything here except 2 pr or a set of 9's. After all he called 2 on the flop then called two again. If he is playing a flush draw he surely doesn't donk the turn. I'm putting him on 99, 95, or 92 and that gives us ~2 outs so I can't call 2 on the turn. If villain does hold 2 pr we have a draw to a better 2 pair but anything that pairs the board might also make his full house.

Sushiglutton · #4 08-14-2007, 08:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The way I read this is MP2 is not the real threat. BB can't really hold anything here except 2 pr or a set of 9's. After all he called 2 on the flop then called two again. If he is playing a flush draw he surely doesn't donk the turn. I'm putting him on 99, 95, or 92 and that gives us ~2 outs so I can't call 2 on the turn. If villain does hold 2 pr we have a draw to a better 2 pair but anything that pairs the board might also make his full house.

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I think ur range is a little narrow for BB. Even so we have 8 outs against any two pair.

Bona · #5 08-14-2007, 08:39 AM

What do you think BB could be donking here other than 2pr or 99?
Yes we have 8 outs against 2 pair (we won't know which ones)and 2 against 99 but we also could be facing 2 more bets here if we call and another firestorm on the river. We can probably only give MP2 credit for random cards but sometimes those hit as well. Overall I don't think we have a + value situation here.

Oink · #6 08-14-2007, 08:50 AM

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What do you think BB could be donking here other than 2pr or 99?

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Picked up flush draws and straight draws.

Since MP2 is a maniac I would 3-bet the turn for value.

Bona · #7 08-14-2007, 08:58 AM

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What do you think BB could be donking here other than 2pr or 99?

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Picked up flush draws and straight draws.

Since MP2 is a maniac I would 3-bet the turn for value.

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Well, that's a reasonable option if you are going to play it. Since if we call we are, in effect, calling 4 anyway. We may as well bet it ourselves. Too speculative for me though.

CrMenace · #8 08-14-2007, 09:00 AM

Worst case scenario here is a capped turn with MP1 folding, which gives us ~22:4 or 5.5:1. That's a bit shy of the odds we need given the weighted chance that villain has set or two pair. But that's worst case, and there is still some chance we are still ahead -- there are some, and BB may be one of them, that donk a non-flush turn after a FD flop.

CrMenace · #9 08-14-2007, 09:08 AM

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I'm putting him on 99, 95, or 92 and that gives us ~2 outs so I can't call 2 on the turn.

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Bona, even given your very limited range, we have odds to call here. There are 3 99 hands with two outs, 9 92 with 8 outs, and 9 95 with 8 outs. So total average outs are:

((3*2)+(9*8)+(9*8))/(3+9+9)=7.4 outs

Given 5.5:1 is our worst-case pot odds, as mentioned in my previous post, we have enough odds to call (7.4 outs requires 5.2:1).

If you expand your range, things only get better from there.

Guitierez · #10 08-14-2007, 10:16 AM

I'm still struggling w/ the weighted outs analysis. Snitch is very good in this, too, maybe he likes to put in his $.02.

I think you also have to take into account 22 and 55 (slowplayed) and then you have to multiply the result by the probability MP2 has us beat (his raise is strong evidence he has more than a pair)

ETA:
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If you expand your range, things only get better from there.

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I add J9 with 8 outs(9 combos), 22 ( 3 combos) and 55 (3 combos):

((9*8)+ (3*2)+(3*2)+(3*2)+(9*8)+(9*8))/(9+3+3+3+9+9)=6.5 outs.

You need something like 6:1 odds to call correctly, i reckon. Say you put in 4 BB, will the expected pot size be 24 BB? If BB and MP2 all cap, this is a call, indeed.