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#1
08-10-2007, 03:18 PM
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Estimate Straw poll rusults.
I think it would be fun if everyone estimated the results for tomorrows Ames Straw poll. These are my guesses:
Romney: 29% Giuliani: 22 Paul: 12 Huckabee: 9 Brownback: 8 McCain: 8 Tancredo: 5 T. Thompson: 5 Cox: 1 Hunter:1 
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#7
08-10-2007, 04:00 PM
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Re: Estimate Straw poll rusults.
[ QUOTE ]
Romney 35% Brownback 14% Huckabee 12% F. Thompson 10% Guliani 8% T. Thompson 6% Paul 6% McCain 5% Tancredo 2% Hunter 1% Rest 1% [/ QUOTE ] Romney 35% would be a huge romp. Tancredo at 2% is way low. He has alot of appeal in places like Iowa and is polling well there: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/...n3155569.shtml "The poll's real impact will be felt among the second-tier candidates, making second place the most-watched position on Saturday. The University of Iowa poll showed Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo holding that spot, at 16 percent. Giuliani was in third at 12 percent — which could be crucial if the actual poll turns out the same way."
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#9
08-10-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: Estimate Straw poll rusults.
Expectations game: Romney around 25% is a disappointment. Romney around 30% is about expected. Romney at 35% would probably be considered a big win for him, and is probably a genuine momentum builder.
If Giuliani finishes 2nd, that would be surprising and very good for his campaign, but probably isn't likely. He can hand-wave away a poor showing because he wasn't competing here, so this probably doesn't signal a whole lot for his campaign if he finishes 3rd or 4th. Obviously whichever one of the 2nd tier guys (Tancredo, Brownback, Huckabee, Tommy Thompson) finishes 2nd gets to hang around in the race for a little while longer. Huckabee and Brownback are fighting for the same cohort of intense right-wing Christians, so whoever finishes ahead between the two of them get to brag at all the fund-raisers about how they're the preferred candidate of the Christian right. Huckabee started campaigning late in Iowa, so he probably survives a weak finish. Brownback may be done if he doesn't have an impressive showing. Tancredo is lined up to get the biggest bounce if the current polling holds and he finishes 2nd, but Iowa sets up as one of his better states. I doubt he can parlay a 2nd place victory in Iowa into any kind of credible campaign. T. Thompson may or may not call it quits if he polls in the low single digits. Paul rolls on no matter what. Obviously anything better than 5% shows his supporters actually exist as an empirical reality and are capable of peeling themselves away from YouTube long enough to attend these stupid fundraisers and cast a vote. Hunter is out of the race by noon on Sunday. The poll is relatively meaningless for F. Thompson and McCain, other than reinforcing the fact McCain's campaign is off in the wilderness somewhere, and that Thompson is late to the game and not making any impressive strides.
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#10
08-10-2007, 04:32 PM
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Re: Estimate Straw poll rusults.
Romney 34%
Brownback 12% Huckabee 11% Tancredo 10% Ron Paul 8% T. Thompson 7% Giuliani 6% McCain 5% F. Thompson 5% Hunter 1% Cox <1% I live in Iowa and I'll probably be way off, but I think this is more realistic than what some of you are posting. Romney should win and win big. If he doesn't win, then he might as well drop out of the race. Brownback is from Kansas and has been campaigning hard in Iowa so I expect him to do well. Huckabee is being pushed by the GOP as the anti-Washington candidate and has been campaigning hard in Iowa so I expect him to do well. Tancredo has the tough immigration policy and that's about it and has also been campaigning hard in Iowa. Huckabee and Brownback need to do well or they've hinted at dropping out. Tancredo hasn't said anything about dropping out if he doesn't do well here. I still think Paul will do fairly well. The person who quoted that GOP poll is ignorant because most of Paul's support for the straw poll will come from people who aren't affiliated with the Republican party as are those who predict he'll get 20% because he's only been here once before this week. Anything in the top 5 will be a success for him. He has enough money to go to January and no one expects him to do well, so he's the candidate with the least to lose. Even though Tommy Thompson is from Wisconsin, he doesn't seem to be hitting it off too well here and expect him to drop out soon after the straw poll. Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson will be on the ballot, but will not be present. I may have overestimated their percentages because Iowans aren't happy that they thought the straw poll wasn't worth their time. Fred Thompson isn't even a declared candidate so I'm not even sure why he's on the ballot. Duncan Hunter was polling at 1% among Republicans and doesn't have the appeal to independents Ron Paul does. John Cox is a relative unknown and has never held a political office.
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