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#1
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Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
This situation just came up and I'm thinking...
My friend has a makeup of -8.7k and wants to play a 500$ PLO donkament. Pretty sure he is probably slightly -EV. However, is it possible for a -EV investment (say he has a -5% ROI) to be +EV given the fact of the makeup? I can't make mathematical sense of it in my head if you think in terms of expectation, but if you think of it in term of sample size/results (i.e. he gets 1st place X% of time, 2nd place X% of time and so on and so on) can it be a +EV investment? So should he be staked? Someone smarter than me tell me if I'm completely off or spot on? |
#2
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
Maybe because the makeup means u get 100% of his profits up to 8.7k and then the standard 50% or whatever on the rest? I'm not sure if that makes sense.
But when you say you think he is -ev, do youmean his actualy expectation is negative in the tourney or that it is -ev for you to stake him in it since his edge isn't big enough? If he's actually -ev in the tourney I don't see how it can be +ev even with make up |
#3
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
Think of it this way. You get 100% of his first 8.7k and then a % of the rest. But even if you got 100% of his cash, him being a losing player makes it -EV for you.
So stop staking your friends who are bad poker players. Dice |
#4
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
ONE TIME!
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#5
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
yep just stupid
this is why makeup is retarded though (actually it's not why makeup is retarded, but makeup is retarded) |
#6
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
I dont think makeup is retarded, if its not in there they could easily go through half the stake, take shots / play bad and then go lol [censored] you afterwards because it doesn't matter to them. I'd say makeup is pretty mandatory in most staking deals just for the psychological factor.
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#7
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
if he's -EV... it's -EV for you. You have 100% of him until he makes $8k. And if it's -EV for you if you ahve 100%, it's certainly -EV for you if you have to give 40% away over $8k.
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#8
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
[ QUOTE ]
I dont think makeup is retarded, if its not in there they could easily go through half the stake, take shots / play bad and then go lol [censored] you afterwards because it doesn't matter to them. I'd say makeup is pretty mandatory in most staking deals just for the psychological factor. [/ QUOTE ] umm... thats why I think makeup is retarded. I dont get what you're saying. My point is once someone gets super deep in makeup, even if they do really well in a tournament they get nothing out of it... not exactly the inspiration you want to be giving your stakee. How is makeup beneficial for the stakees psychology? If there's no makeup... yeah sure they could go 'lol [censored] you' and play bad with the rest of your stake, but why would they do that when if they do well they actually get to keep the money they win? |
#9
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
SM,
Is this the guy trying to get a stake? How much back and fourth double talk did it take for him to convince you any of this can possibly make sense? |
#10
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Re: Staking Situation/Math Problem/Maybe I\'m just stupid.
wait, so you give -ev players 40% in stakes? sick
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