Luck vs Skill (Or the lack thereof) Blind Steal fails.

Zeldark · #1 08-06-2007, 03:46 PM

This hand stuck out. I find myself out of position against an unknown. The blinds were very tight and I only had one problem, which stuck around. Bring on the tough love, I suspect my game is off.

Limit Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

MrWookie · #2 08-06-2007, 03:51 PM

Fold preflop. Bet flop, bet turn, bet river, at least until he gives you an excuse not to.

BigBadBabar · #3 08-06-2007, 03:57 PM

wow, 0/4 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

MrWookie · #4 08-06-2007, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wow, 0/4 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he did bet the flop. 1/4.

BigBadBabar · #5 08-06-2007, 04:13 PM

ah yes good point, and i mean pf is whatever, i'll give it .5 for the idea

Zeldark · #6 08-06-2007, 04:21 PM

People usually don't post hands because they think they're 4/4 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Zeldark · #7 08-06-2007, 04:03 PM

In the interest of getting better at poker, I'll take up that challenge. I don't know if I classify as a true noob, but whatever.

PF is a raise because there was a decent chance of getting the blinds since they were so tight. Surely the button won't cold-call with crap at .5/1. These stakes are high!

After that dry humor, on the flop we have top pair weak kicker on a coordinated board. There's still a bit of fold equity, and we likely have the best hand if he doesn't have a queen. There are some strong draw options and we can't effectively protect, but we can charge for them anyways.

On the turn I'm in a small pot with TPWK OOP. If he has a better Queen I don't want to be raised, and he'll likely bet the turn with a fairly wide range of hands.

The river is more weak still. The flush draw hasn't come in, but that completes straights if he has a jack and I'm beat by any Qz or 2 pair. The nature of the blind steal situation though theoretically widens both of our ranges. I feel that as played I should've folded, or was slowing down so soon an error?

Hopefully that should create a sense of not being biased [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

CrMenace · #8 08-06-2007, 05:34 PM

SUPER GRUNCH

Pre-flop: I'm a little more selective when chosing hands to steal with, especially when I'm CO, not BU or SB. Q3o is a hand outside of the top half of hands (I understand that Q7o) is the 50% hand. That being said, your read of the villains is more important when stealing than your actual hand. So two tight blinds helps a lot. Button, is an unknown, so I'd be that less inclined to steal through him. It may be a big mistake on my part, but I really don't like stealing or defending against unknowns.

Flop: I think the c-bet is correct. With top pair, you have a good hand in a blind steal situation. You'd like to get value, and of course continue to show aggression and take the pot down right now if possible.

Turn: I'm really not sure why you slowed down here. Villain has shown any resistance so far and you still have top pair. I'd need more evidence to say that I'm beaten. Villain could have called with an FD or SD, pair worse than top pair or whatever. On a more coordinated flop, you should be more willing to fire the second bullet on the turn. If raised, now we now have a tougher situation. Getting an assumed 8:2 in this blind steal situation with top pair, I'd be inclined to call down from there.

River: Okay, so now if villain was drawing to the straight he got there. But, I think I fire one more time for value. If I'm raised, I think I can call here -- given that villain may be bluffing his lower pair or busted FD at least 10% of the time.

Zeldark · #9 08-06-2007, 05:51 PM

I've been making good on my August goal and rereading what's easily one of the top 2 books in my little 2p2 collection, Inside the Poker Mind. Ironicaly, the next section I read after the post is "Bad Plays Good Players Make." There is a segment "Trying, with garbage hands, to steal the blinds of skilled, aggressive players, or mediocre, tenacious callers." That is straight from the book, but I gave credit so that shouldn't infringe, right? I claim no mastery involving plageristic technicalities.

It gives examples against using hands much better than Q3o.
Yay flop.
Yeah, turn was sissing out.
If you're betting the river you're folding to a raise? Yes, yes?

MrWookie · #10 08-06-2007, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SUPER GRUNCH

Pre-flop: I'm a little more selective when chosing hands to steal with, especially when I'm CO, not BU or SB. Q3o is a hand outside of the top half of hands (I understand that Q7o) is the 50% hand. That being said, your read of the villains is more important when stealing than your actual hand. So two tight blinds helps a lot. Button, is an unknown, so I'd be that less inclined to steal through him. It may be a big mistake on my part, but I really don't like stealing or defending against unknowns.

Flop: I think the c-bet is correct. With top pair, you have a good hand in a blind steal situation. You'd like to get value, and of course continue to show aggression and take the pot down right now if possible.

Turn: I'm really not sure why you slowed down here. Villain has shown any resistance so far and you still have top pair. I'd need more evidence to say that I'm beaten. Villain could have called with an FD or SD, pair worse than top pair or whatever. On a more coordinated flop, you should be more willing to fire the second bullet on the turn. If raised, now we now have a tougher situation. Getting an assumed 8:2 in this blind steal situation with top pair, I'd be inclined to call down from there.

River: Okay, so now if villain was drawing to the straight he got there. But, I think I fire one more time for value. If I'm raised, I think I can call here -- given that villain may be bluffing his lower pair or busted FD at least 10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say button, SB, and BB will only play 10% of their hands against your PFR. How often do you successfully steal the blinds w/ this hand? What if they all play 20% of their hands?