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#3
08-05-2007, 01:40 PM
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Re: When to Ignore ICM, A Winning Turbo Strategy That Is \'Outside the Box
It's fine as long as everyone else plays according to ICM. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense against bad players or good players that will do the same thing to you.
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#4
08-05-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: When to Ignore ICM, A Winning Turbo Strategy That Is \'Outside the
do you wanna say that it doesn't work on the stars and tilt 109+ ? On the table when 4-5 regulars at least . If yes , how to play there? ,according icm ?
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#5
08-05-2007, 02:35 PM
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Re: When to Ignore ICM, A Winning Turbo Strategy That Is \'Outside the
Well, his analysis assumes that no one else every calls and busts. It ignores that he can pick up a hand in the next couple hands.
He also over values the value of the big stack on the bubble, when in order to get it he had to cripple someone that will have exactly one hand remaining before he's forced all in in the blinds. So, there really is no opportunity to pwn the bubble. I think this was a terrible example he chose.
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#7
08-05-2007, 03:42 PM
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Re: When to Ignore ICM, A Winning Turbo Strategy That Is \'Outside the
If the other players at the table are better than your are or the table just sets up such that you will be forced to face many -$EV decisions, it makes some sense to take one -$EV gamble now to prevent a long string of them later. This is considering $EV hand-to-hand, as if we're plotting Hero's prize pool equity as a function of hand number or something similar, which is not the way we usually look at it. It actually a kind of game of chicken with the other players. If one of my opponents is going to be calling pushes with 98o, good things are going to happen to me by folding a lot of hands.
[ QUOTE ] Remember, the next time you play a turbo SNG; the biggest mistakes your opponents will make are their FOLDS near the bubble. [/ QUOTE ] No, not really. A bad call is usually much worse than a bad fold in terms of the prize pool equity lost.
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#8
08-06-2007, 07:54 PM
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Re: When to Ignore ICM, A Winning Turbo Strategy That Is \'Outside the
To illustrate my point about a bad call being worse than a bad push, I'll use an example similar to the one given in the article.
blinds: 200/400/A25 UTG (t6300) CO (t1500) Button (t2300) SB (t1500) Hero (t1900) Hero is BB with K7o. Preflop: 2 folds, Button pushes t2300, SB folds, Hero ??? Against a range of {22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T3o+,T2s+,95o+,92s+,86o+,84s+ ,76o,75s+,65s} (75%), the call is +1.5% (huge!) with K7o. Against a very tight range of {66+,ATo+,A9s+,KQs} (9%), the call is -4.6%. To turn it around and look at the push from the button's perspective, against the nittiest two opponents imaginable, where the blinds only call with QQ+, the push is +4.1%. Against complete calling stations who call with {22+,A2+,K2+,Q5o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T8o+,T7s+,98s} (50%) it's +1.9%. The push only changed 2.2% over the spectrum of possible opponent hand ranges. The call changed 6.1%. Pushing with the wrong hands was not nearly as bad as calling with the wrong hands given the opposing ranges.
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