Week 1 NCAA plays and leans

[dmoney416]

Season: 0-0

Will update the thread as I add plays.

Season plays: (write-ups can be found in the seasons wins threads)

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins -105 (4.2u to win 4): 0-0
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins -115 (3.45u to win 3): 0-0
South Carolina Over 7 Wins -120 (2.4u to win 2): 0-0

(Auburn Under 9 and Notre Dame Under 7.5 were scratched as they got juiced up)

Week 1 plays

Iowa (-11) over Northern Illinois (1.65u to win 1.5)

Remember, this game is being played at Soldier Field, not at N. Ill's home field.

Last year, Iowa beat N. Ill 24-14 at home as 16.5 favorites. The game was extremely ugly, as both offenses turned the ball over three times. Iowa also missed 2 FGs and dropped an easy touchdown pass which cost them more points. N. Ill did zero on offense until the fourth quarter, when they all of a sudden scored twice on two straight possessions to cut the lead to 17-14. Wolfe was held to 66 yards on 22 carries, and Iowa dominated yardage wise. This was also Jake Christensen's first game as a starter, and he was impressive. He threw for 256 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT on 19-30 passing. Really a bizarre game overall.

Also, keep in mind that this game occured during Iowa's collapse, and this game was the only game that Iowa would win in their last six games (this included a loss to Indiana as 19 point favs and a loss to Northwestern as 20 point favs).

This year, I expect a similar game (without the constant turnovers) with Iowa cruising to a 31-10ish type victory.

Iowa returns 14 starters (6 on offense, 8 on defense).

On offense, Christensen should get the reins at QB with Tate gone. They also return their top 3 RB, including Albert Young (ran for 125 yards against NIU last year) and Damian Sims, who combined for over 1400 yards last season. Andy Brodell and and Dominique Douglas return as the top 2 WR. They combined for nearly 1300 yards. Austin Signor takes over full time at kicker for Kyle Schlicher. Signor was good in limited time last year, hitting 5-5 XP and 2-2 FG with a long of 41. This may be an upgrade as Schlicher struggled last season at times, hitting 13-20 FG (including only 2-6 from 40+). They return 2 of their 5 on the OL. Overall, they return a good portion of the offense. I am also encouraged that Christensen's first start of the year will be against a team that he previously had success against.

On defense, they lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers. However, they return top tackler Mike Klinkenborg, and 8 of their 11 top tacklers overall. They return the entire DL and 2 of the 3 starters at LB. So, they will have 6 of the 7 back from a front seven that shut down Garrett Wolfe last year. They get both CBs back, but will have to replace both safties.

Northern Illinois returns 12 starters (6 on offense, 6 on defense).

On offense, they lose 1900 yard RB Garrett Wolfe to the NFL. Their top returning rushier is Cas Prime, who ran for 142 yards in 35 carries last year. Dan Nicholson will most likely be the QB, and split time with the departing Phil Horvath last year. Nicholson was an unimpressive 60-115 (52.2%) last season for 648 yards, 5 TDs, and 6 INT. They do return their top 3 WRs, including the very talented Britt Davis (57 catches, 732 yards last year). They return 3 starters on the OL, but they lose 1st-team All-MAC tackle Doug Free. Chris Nendick returns as the kicker. He was 35-36 on XP and 20-27 on FGs last year. However, he was only 1-5 from 40+ and his 27 FG attempts are a clear indication of N. Illinois' struggles in the red zone.

On defense, they lose three of the four in the secondary. They return top sack man Larry English (12 sacks), but they lose top tackler Dustin Utschig (116 tackles). Four of the front seven returns, as do three of their 6 top tacklers.

Overall, I feel this is a similar match-up to last season's, except that Iowa should be improved. N. Illinois downgrades at RB, and Iowa completely shut them down last season in that department anyway. Iowa dominated statistically in that game, and they should do the same here. Christensen had success last season against N. Illinois and I don't believe that Nicholson is ready for a Big 10 caliber defense.

Leans

Georgia Tech +3 over Notre Dame

Florida St. -1.5 over Clemson

Central Michigan +8 over Kansas: I said I would take CMU if this was over a TD, so at the very least I have to consider this one.

SMU +9 over Texas Tech: A hunch here as I like SMU's offense and generally don't trust TT on the road. Will have to research this more though.

ULM +5.5 over Tulsa
Army +4.5 over Akron

Overall, I feel the lines were pretty well done.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Alright....I'll just post in here and, hopefully, this will become the week 1 home for discussion

from my live journal page
[ QUOTE ]
Over that time (the 2 years I've publicly posted picks on 2p2), I've gone 181-155 (53.87%) on O/U, ATS, and prop bets. I've also picked one game as the pick of the week (POTW) the past two years and have gone 19-10 (65.52%) on those picks ATS and O/U. This year, this forum represents a dramatic step-up in publicly posting. I will now include ML picks, units wagered, and units won/lost to give a fuller picture.

[/ QUOTE ]

For now,
POTW Georgia Tech +3 @ Notre Dame bet 5.5u to win 5u

Florida St -1.5 @ Clemson bet 3.3u to win 3u

FIU +38.5 @ Penn St bet 1.1u to win 1u

[dmoney416]

Sounds good MyTurn. Obviously like the first two plays.

Is the FIU play based on the fact that PSU plays a vanilla type of game against opponents they should blow out?

[MyTurn2Raise]

sorry, I'm not giving out my reasoning for anything to begin this year

I know, pretty lame

I explain it on my live journal page
which is where I will crosspost my picks and make them easy accessible and readable to all

[GoldenBears]

You are on Covers as well, I take it? Either that, or you jacked someone's post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm with you on the Iowa play but I got it at -10.5.

I am also on Akron -3.5, Iowa State -4 and Arizona +5.5.

I am waiting on a 5-6 more lines to move.

Also, I hate to sound like a homer but Cal > 8.5 season wins at -125 has GREAT value.

[dmoney416]

Golden, yes - on covers as well.

Very nice numbers on Iowa and Akron. I am actually leaning on Army, but won't play it unless a better number comes along. I think that line could push toward 7 by gameday.

I set aside a certain amount for a couple of team totals, so what I have as far as those are set.

Also, where do you see Cal at 8.5? On The Greek they have it as 9.5 (over at +200).

Thanks and GL this season.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
For now,
POTW Georgia Tech +3 @ Notre Dame bet 5.5u to win 5u

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to see some things never change. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[bills217]

I like the Troy side of that Arkansas game. The Troy guys have been in close games in hostile environments recently, and Marcus Monk won't be 100% if he plays at all, which should render Arkansas, completely, utterly, one-dimensional (although it's one heck of a dimension to have).

[bills217]

Did you guys hear Chan Gailey hired Michael Vick as a special consultant to the GT football team?






He finally found someone who knows how to beat a Dawg.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

Miami down to -18. Hope it reaches -17 or lower...I hear the players are really responding to Shannon.